Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?

Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?

OPENBinary · Closes 1/1/2027, 12:59:00 PM

POLITICSUKRAINETRUMPNATOGEOPOLITICSGREENLANDFOREIGN POLICYWORLD
Open on Polymarket ↗

Score

100

Good

24h vol

$3,248

7d vol

$6,521

Open int.

$65,119

Activity

6 traders · 6 signals · updated 12 min. ago

Score breakdown

26 min. ago
Liquidity1
Spread1
Tradability1
Time left1

Execution notes

No major liquidity or timing warnings.

OPEN_AND_TWO_SIDEDSPREAD_OKDEPTH_STRONGPLENTY_OF_TIMEDATA_QUALITY_HIGH

Outcomes

Yes

Mid 1.05¢·Bid 0.01·Ask 0.01

No Lead

Mid 98.95¢·Bid 0.99·Ask 0.99

Price (MID)Entropy0·Datahigh

Real-time mid prices from Polymarket CLOB

Updating…
Yes
No

Signals on this market

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Top traders

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Context

Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally initiates a withdrawal from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty. Any action meeting these criteria will qualify for a “Yes” resolution regardless of if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions. The U.S.'s exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The resolution source will be official information from the US government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally initiates a withdrawal from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty. Any action meeting these criteria will qualify for a “Yes” resolution regardless of if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions. The U.S.'s exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The resolution source will be official information from the US government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Resolution source

The resolution source will be official information from the US government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event

Will US withdraw from NATO by...?

Resolve
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Trades 24h
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Advanced data

Market metrics (raw)

{
  "p_normalized": [
    0.010499999999999999,
    0.9895
  ],
  "activity": {
    "trades_24h": null,
    "volume_7d_usd": 6521.005229,
    "volume_24h_usd": 3248.29,
    "open_interest_usd": 65119.08578
  },
  "leader_outcome_id": 1
}

Depth / impact

Yes

  • 100 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
  • 200 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
  • 500 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
  • —

No

  • 100 {"buy":375275.72303,"sell":4908.96745}
  • 200 {"buy":375275.72303,"sell":13645.255220000001}
  • 500 {"buy":375275.72303,"sell":15039.42556}
  • —

Order books

Outcome 0

Bids (top 5)

  • {"size":276,"price":0.008}
  • {"size":1834,"price":0.006}
  • {"size":1683.62,"price":0.005}
  • {"size":15630.58,"price":0.004}
  • {"size":21149.75,"price":0.003}

Asks (top 5)

  • {"size":82.8,"price":0.013}
  • {"size":482.1,"price":0.014}
  • {"size":912.85,"price":0.015}
  • {"size":3523.2,"price":0.02}
  • {"size":501,"price":0.022}

Outcome 1

Bids (top 5)

  • {"size":82.8,"price":0.987}
  • {"size":482.1,"price":0.986}
  • {"size":912.85,"price":0.985}
  • {"size":3523.2,"price":0.98}
  • {"size":501,"price":0.978}

Asks (top 5)

  • {"size":276,"price":0.992}
  • {"size":1834,"price":0.994}
  • {"size":1683.62,"price":0.995}
  • {"size":15630.58,"price":0.996}
  • {"size":21149.75,"price":0.997}