Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026?

OPENBinary · Closes 4/1/2027, 11:59:00 AM

UNEMPLOYMENTECONOMYBLSMACRO INDICATORSNFPNONFARM PAYROLL

Open on Polymarket ↗

Score

Good

24h vol

$3,272

7d vol

$8,719

Open int.

$7,051

Activity

2 traders · 2 signals · updated 45 min. ago

Score breakdown

49 min. ago

Liquidity1

Spread1

Tradability1

Time left1

Execution notes

No major liquidity or timing warnings.

OPEN_AND_TWO_SIDEDSPREAD_OKDEPTH_STRONGPLENTY_OF_TIMEDATA_QUALITY_HIGH

Outcomes

Yes

Mid 1.4¢·Bid 0.01·Ask 0.02

No Lead

Mid 98.6¢·Bid 0.98·Ask 0.99

Price (MID)Entropy0·DatahighCtrl or ⌘ + scroll to pan/zoom

Real-time mid prices from Polymarket CLOB

Updating…

Yes

Signals on this market

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Top traders

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Context

Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time. The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month. Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

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Resolution criteria

https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm

Resolution source

https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm

Event

How high will US unemployment go in 2026?

Resolve: —
Trades 24h: —

Advanced data

Market metrics (raw)

{
  "p_normalized": [
    0.013999999999999999,
    0.986
  ],
  "activity": {
    "trades_24h": null,
    "volume_7d_usd": 8719.351901000002,
    "volume_24h_usd": 3272.3489000000004,
    "open_interest_usd": 7051.18123
  },
  "leader_outcome_id": 1
}

Depth / impact

Yes

100 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
200 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
500 {"buy":0,"sell":0}

100 {"buy":2956.23803,"sell":1019.1841400000001}
200 {"buy":55535.49221,"sell":5623.19843}
500 {"buy":55535.49221,"sell":6043.607300000001}

Order books

Outcome 0

Bids (top 5)

{"size":1861.33,"price":0.009}
{"size":900,"price":0.008}
{"size":20,"price":0.007}
{"size":200,"price":0.005}
{"size":651.9,"price":0.004}

Asks (top 5)

{"size":80.34,"price":0.019}
{"size":559.97,"price":0.02}
{"size":400,"price":0.021}
{"size":150.14,"price":0.024}
{"size":205.33,"price":0.026}

Outcome 1

Bids (top 5)

{"size":80.34,"price":0.981}
{"size":559.97,"price":0.98}
{"size":400,"price":0.979}
{"size":150.14,"price":0.976}
{"size":205.33,"price":0.974}

Asks (top 5)

{"size":1861.33,"price":0.991}
{"size":900,"price":0.992}
{"size":20,"price":0.993}
{"size":200,"price":0.995}
{"size":651.9,"price":0.996}