Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?

Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?

OPENBinary · Closes 1/1/2027, 12:59:00 PM

POLITICSTRUMPTRUMP PRESIDENCY
Open on Polymarket ↗

Score

100

Good

24h vol

$65

7d vol

$2,273

Open int.

$55,054

Activity

7 traders · 7 signals · updated 16 min. ago

Score breakdown

34 min. ago
Liquidity1
Spread1
Tradability1
Time left1

Execution notes

No major liquidity or timing warnings.

OPEN_AND_TWO_SIDEDSPREAD_TIGHTDEPTH_STRONGPLENTY_OF_TIMEDATA_QUALITY_HIGH

Outcomes

Yes

Mid 1.85¢·Bid 0.02·Ask 0.02

No Lead

Mid 98.15¢·Bid 0.98·Ask 0.98

Price (MID)Entropy0·Datahigh

Real-time mid prices from Polymarket CLOB

Updating…
Yes
No

Signals on this market

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Top traders

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Context

Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Resolution source

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Event

Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?

Resolve
—
Trades 24h
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Advanced data

Market metrics (raw)

{
  "p_normalized": [
    0.018500000000000003,
    0.9815
  ],
  "activity": {
    "trades_24h": null,
    "volume_7d_usd": 2273.262143,
    "volume_24h_usd": 65.39,
    "open_interest_usd": 55053.67527
  },
  "leader_outcome_id": 1
}

Depth / impact

Yes

  • 100 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
  • 200 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
  • 500 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
  • —

No

  • 100 {"buy":5728.00742,"sell":17279.99036}
  • 200 {"buy":349052.59105,"sell":19805.09119}
  • 500 {"buy":349052.59105,"sell":21314.151689999995}
  • —

Order books

Outcome 1

Bids (top 5)

  • {"size":15.87,"price":0.98}
  • {"size":54.24,"price":0.979}
  • {"size":4523.68,"price":0.978}
  • {"size":3437.5,"price":0.976}
  • {"size":6249.99,"price":0.974}

Asks (top 5)

  • {"size":1469.8,"price":0.983}
  • {"size":76.93,"price":0.987}
  • {"size":83.34,"price":0.988}
  • {"size":1000.91,"price":0.989}
  • {"size":2610.63,"price":0.99}

Outcome 0

Bids (top 5)

  • {"size":1469.8,"price":0.017}
  • {"size":76.93,"price":0.013}
  • {"size":83.34,"price":0.012}
  • {"size":1000.91,"price":0.011}
  • {"size":2610.63,"price":0.01}

Asks (top 5)

  • {"size":15.87,"price":0.02}
  • {"size":54.24,"price":0.021}
  • {"size":4523.68,"price":0.022}
  • {"size":3437.5,"price":0.024}
  • {"size":6249.99,"price":0.026}