Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?

Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?

OPENBinary · Closes 1/1/2027, 12:59:00 PM

POLITICSIRANMIDDLE EASTISRAELGEOPOLITICSTRUMP PRESIDENCYWORLDUS-IRANIRAN CEASEFIREU.S. X IRAN
Open on Polymarket ↗

Score

93

Good

24h vol

$7,452

7d vol

$17,195

Open int.

$66,018

Activity

8 traders · 8 signals · updated 31 min. ago

Score breakdown

10 min. ago
Liquidity1
Spread1
Tradability1
Time left1

Execution notes

  • DEPTH_MODERATE
OPEN_AND_TWO_SIDEDSPREAD_OKPLENTY_OF_TIMEDATA_QUALITY_HIGH

Outcomes

Yes

Mid 3.85¢·Bid 0.04·Ask 0.04

No Lead

Mid 96.15¢·Bid 0.96·Ask 0.96

Price (MID)Entropy0·Datahigh

Real-time mid prices from Polymarket CLOB

Updating…
Yes
No

Signals on this market

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Top traders

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Context

Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law. The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law. The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.

Resolution source

The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.

Event

Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?

Resolve
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Trades 24h
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Advanced data

Market metrics (raw)

{
  "p_normalized": [
    0.0385,
    0.9615
  ],
  "activity": {
    "trades_24h": null,
    "volume_7d_usd": 17194.654932,
    "volume_24h_usd": 7451.646065999999,
    "open_interest_usd": 66018.22477
  },
  "leader_outcome_id": 1
}

Depth / impact

Yes

  • 100 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
  • 200 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
  • 500 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
  • —

No

  • 100 {"buy":954.24807,"sell":13204.377149999998}
  • 200 {"buy":8374.59477,"sell":15565.377149999998}
  • 500 {"buy":341567.20982,"sell":26860.57255}
  • —

Order books

Outcome 0

Bids (top 5)

  • {"size":378.18,"price":0.036}
  • {"size":611.07,"price":0.035}
  • {"size":165.11,"price":0.027}
  • {"size":715.99,"price":0.026}
  • {"size":1500,"price":0.025}

Asks (top 5)

  • {"size":3085.49,"price":0.041}
  • {"size":1000,"price":0.042}
  • {"size":8000,"price":0.043}
  • {"size":1705.06,"price":0.046}
  • {"size":5,"price":0.047}

Outcome 1

Bids (top 5)

  • {"size":3085.49,"price":0.959}
  • {"size":1000,"price":0.958}
  • {"size":8000,"price":0.957}
  • {"size":1705.06,"price":0.954}
  • {"size":5,"price":0.953}

Asks (top 5)

  • {"size":378.18,"price":0.964}
  • {"size":611.07,"price":0.965}
  • {"size":165.11,"price":0.973}
  • {"size":99.99,"price":0.974}
  • {"size":1373,"price":0.975}