Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026?

Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026?

OPENBinary · Closes 1/1/2027, 12:59:00 PM

POLITICSVENEZUELAGEOPOLITICSTRUMP PRESIDENCYWORLD
Open on Polymarket ↗

Score

93

Good

24h vol

$274,667

7d vol

—

Open int.

$74,407

Activity

3 traders · 3 signals · updated 48 min. ago

Score breakdown

49 min. ago
Liquidity1
Spread1
Tradability1
Time left1

Execution notes

No major liquidity or timing warnings.

OPEN_AND_TWO_SIDEDSPREAD_OKDEPTH_STRONGPLENTY_OF_TIMEDATA_QUALITY_HIGH

Outcomes

Yes

Mid 3.25¢·Bid 0.03·Ask 0.04

No Lead

Mid 96.75¢·Bid 0.96·Ask 0.97

Price (MID)Entropy0·Datahigh

Real-time mid prices from Polymarket CLOB

Updating…
Yes
No

Signals on this market

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Top traders

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Context

Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between November 3, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between November 3, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

Resolution source

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

Event

Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?

Resolve
—
Trades 24h
—
Advanced data

Market metrics (raw)

{
  "p_normalized": [
    0.0325,
    0.9675
  ],
  "activity": {
    "trades_24h": null,
    "volume_7d_usd": null,
    "volume_24h_usd": 274666.966723,
    "open_interest_usd": 74407.30324
  },
  "leader_outcome_id": 1
}

Depth / impact

Yes

  • 100 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
  • 200 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
  • 500 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
  • —

No

  • 100 {"buy":8832.90523,"sell":33.91686}
  • 200 {"buy":29578.910020000003,"sell":6028.75599}
  • 500 {"buy":228254.54439,"sell":9871.041}
  • —

Order books

Outcome 1

Bids (top 5)

  • {"size":35.22,"price":0.963}
  • {"size":202.96,"price":0.957}
  • {"size":139.08,"price":0.956}
  • {"size":1106.72,"price":0.955}
  • {"size":51.81,"price":0.954}

Asks (top 5)

  • {"size":3315.89,"price":0.972}
  • {"size":4632.95,"price":0.973}
  • {"size":422.95,"price":0.974}
  • {"size":707.74,"price":0.975}
  • {"size":61.5,"price":0.978}

Outcome 0

Bids (top 5)

  • {"size":3315.89,"price":0.028}
  • {"size":4632.95,"price":0.027}
  • {"size":422.95,"price":0.026}
  • {"size":707.74,"price":0.025}
  • {"size":61.5,"price":0.022}

Asks (top 5)

  • {"size":35.22,"price":0.037}
  • {"size":202.96,"price":0.043}
  • {"size":139.08,"price":0.044}
  • {"size":1106.72,"price":0.045}
  • {"size":51.81,"price":0.046}