Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

OPENBinary · Closes 1/1/2027, 12:59:00 PM

POLITICSIRANTRUMPMIDDLE EASTISRAELGEOPOLITICSMACRO GEOPOLITICSWORLDMILITARY STRIKESU.S. X IRAN
Open on Polymarket ↗

Score

94

Good

24h vol

$79,282

7d vol

$908,905

Open int.

$268,394

Activity

223 traders · 225 signals · updated 32 sec. ago

Score breakdown

46 sec. ago
Liquidity1
Spread1
Tradability1
Time left1

Execution notes

No major liquidity or timing warnings.

OPEN_AND_TWO_SIDEDSPREAD_OKDEPTH_STRONGPLENTY_OF_TIMEDATA_QUALITY_HIGH

Outcomes

Yes

Mid 17.5¢·Bid 0.17·Ask 0.18

No Lead

Mid 82.5¢·Bid 0.82·Ask 0.83

Price (MID)Entropy0·Datahigh

Real-time mid prices from Polymarket CLOB

Updating…
Yes
No

Signals on this market

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Top traders

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Context

Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

Resolution source

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

Event

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Resolve
—
Trades 24h
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Advanced data

Market metrics (raw)

{
  "p_normalized": [
    0.175,
    0.825
  ],
  "activity": {
    "trades_24h": null,
    "volume_7d_usd": 908905.3834239999,
    "volume_24h_usd": 79281.570034,
    "open_interest_usd": 268393.9178
  },
  "leader_outcome_id": 1
}

Depth / impact

Yes

  • 100 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
  • 200 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
  • 500 {"buy":777.8897999999999,"sell":6534.341000000001}
  • —

No

  • 100 {"buy":31902.959000000003,"sell":3543.7201999999993}
  • 200 {"buy":71445.6986,"sell":34815.8195}
  • 500 {"buy":217498.73849999998,"sell":50559.710100000004}
  • —

Order books

Outcome 1

Bids (top 5)

  • {"size":4321.61,"price":0.82}
  • {"size":38607.53,"price":0.81}
  • {"size":15866,"price":0.8}
  • {"size":3862.14,"price":0.79}
  • {"size":999.61,"price":0.78}

Asks (top 5)

  • {"size":38437.3,"price":0.83}
  • {"size":47074.69,"price":0.84}
  • {"size":70358.65,"price":0.85}
  • {"size":100288.59,"price":0.86}
  • {"size":85650.25,"price":0.87}

Outcome 0

Bids (top 5)

  • {"size":38437.3,"price":0.17}
  • {"size":47074.69,"price":0.16}
  • {"size":70358.65,"price":0.15}
  • {"size":100288.59,"price":0.14}
  • {"size":85650.25,"price":0.13}

Asks (top 5)

  • {"size":4321.61,"price":0.18}
  • {"size":38607.53,"price":0.19}
  • {"size":15866,"price":0.2}
  • {"size":3862.14,"price":0.21}
  • {"size":999.61,"price":0.22}