Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?

Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?

OPENBinary · Closes 1/1/2027, 12:59:00 PM

POLITICSVENEZUELAGEOPOLITICSCUBA
Open on Polymarket ↗

Score

92

Good

24h vol

$4,333

7d vol

$34,022

Open int.

$83,558

Activity

28 traders · 29 signals · updated 17 min. ago

Score breakdown

38 min. ago
Liquidity1
Spread1
Tradability1
Time left1

Execution notes

No major liquidity or timing warnings.

OPEN_AND_TWO_SIDEDSPREAD_OKDEPTH_STRONGPLENTY_OF_TIMEDATA_QUALITY_HIGH

Outcomes

Yes

Mid 4.5¢·Bid 0.04·Ask 0.05

No Lead

Mid 95.5¢·Bid 0.95·Ask 0.96

Price (MID)Entropy0·Datahigh

Real-time mid prices from Polymarket CLOB

Updating…
Yes
No

Signals on this market

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Top traders

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Context

Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

Resolution source

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

Event

Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?

Resolve
—
Trades 24h
—
Advanced data

Market metrics (raw)

{
  "p_normalized": [
    0.045,
    0.955
  ],
  "activity": {
    "trades_24h": null,
    "volume_7d_usd": 34022.009269,
    "volume_24h_usd": 4333.253140000001,
    "open_interest_usd": 83558.2491
  },
  "leader_outcome_id": 1
}

Depth / impact

Yes

  • 100 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
  • 200 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
  • 500 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
  • —

No

  • 100 {"buy":3078.3552,"sell":7298.204}
  • 200 {"buy":12518.7735,"sell":22029.545599999998}
  • 500 {"buy":118301.2364,"sell":38267.4492}
  • —

Order books

Outcome 0

Bids (top 5)

  • {"size":3206.62,"price":0.04}
  • {"size":9732.39,"price":0.03}
  • {"size":81441.1,"price":0.02}
  • {"size":26232.51,"price":0.01}

Asks (top 5)

  • {"size":7682.32,"price":0.05}
  • {"size":15671.64,"price":0.06}
  • {"size":13956.2,"price":0.07}
  • {"size":2651.78,"price":0.08}
  • {"size":900,"price":0.09}

Outcome 1

Bids (top 5)

  • {"size":7682.32,"price":0.95}
  • {"size":15671.64,"price":0.94}
  • {"size":13956.2,"price":0.93}
  • {"size":2651.78,"price":0.92}
  • {"size":900,"price":0.91}

Asks (top 5)

  • {"size":3206.62,"price":0.96}
  • {"size":9732.39,"price":0.97}
  • {"size":81441.1,"price":0.98}
  • {"size":26232.51,"price":0.99}