Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?

OPENBinary · Closes 1/1/2027, 12:59:00 PM

POLITICSALIENSSCIENCECULTURE
Open on Polymarket ↗

Score

100

Good

24h vol

$7,261

7d vol

$303,661

Open int.

$208,285

Activity

—

Score breakdown

2 wk. ago
Liquidity1
Spread1
Tradability1
Time left1

Execution notes

No major liquidity or timing warnings.

OPEN_AND_TWO_SIDEDSPREAD_TIGHTDEPTH_STRONGPLENTY_OF_TIMEDATA_QUALITY_HIGH

Outcomes

Yes

Mid 0.45¢·Bid 0·Ask 0.01

No Lead

Mid 99.55¢·Bid 1·Ask 1

Price (MID)Entropy0·Datahigh

Real-time mid prices from Polymarket CLOB

Updating…
Yes
No

Signals on this market

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Top traders

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Context

Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Resolution source

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Event

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?

Resolve
—
Trades 24h
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Advanced data

Market metrics (raw)

{
  "p_normalized": [
    0.0045000000000000005,
    0.9955
  ],
  "activity": {
    "trades_24h": null,
    "volume_7d_usd": 303661.393376,
    "volume_24h_usd": 7261.078359999999,
    "open_interest_usd": 208285.44967
  },
  "leader_outcome_id": 1
}

Depth / impact

Yes

  • 100 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
  • 200 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
  • 500 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
  • —

No

  • 100 {"buy":239960.19342,"sell":90594.54601}
  • 200 {"buy":239960.19342,"sell":161520.04950999998}
  • 500 {"buy":239960.19342,"sell":198661.89951}
  • —

Order books

Outcome 0

Bids (top 5)

  • {"size":52151.73,"price":0.004}
  • {"size":95630.94,"price":0.003}
  • {"size":10320.72,"price":0.002}
  • {"size":82455.4,"price":0.001}

Asks (top 5)

  • {"size":1577.22,"price":0.005}
  • {"size":2814.78,"price":0.006}
  • {"size":2070,"price":0.007}
  • {"size":6727.71,"price":0.008}
  • {"size":8306.97,"price":0.009}

Outcome 1

Bids (top 5)

  • {"size":1577.22,"price":0.995}
  • {"size":2814.78,"price":0.994}
  • {"size":2070,"price":0.993}
  • {"size":6727.71,"price":0.992}
  • {"size":8306.97,"price":0.991}

Asks (top 5)

  • {"size":52151.73,"price":0.996}
  • {"size":95630.94,"price":0.997}
  • {"size":10320.72,"price":0.998}
  • {"size":82455.4,"price":0.999}