Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?

OPENBinary · Closes 1/1/2027, 7:59:00 AM

POLITICSIRANTRUMPPEACE DEALSHIPPINGGEOPOLITICSU.S. X IRANBLOCKADE
Open on Polymarket ↗

Score

100

Good

24h vol

$494,244

7d vol

$1,662,014

Open int.

$201,885

Activity

—

Score breakdown

4 mo. ago
Liquidity1
Spread1
Tradability1
Time left1

Execution notes

No major liquidity or timing warnings.

OPEN_AND_TWO_SIDEDSPREAD_TIGHTDEPTH_STRONGPLENTY_OF_TIMEDATA_QUALITY_HIGH

Outcomes

Yes Lead

Mid 99.8¢·Bid 1·Ask 1

No

Mid 0.2¢·Bid 0·Ask 0

Price (MID)Entropy0·Datahigh

Real-time mid prices from Polymarket CLOB

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Yes
No

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Context

Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the imposition of a naval blockade on Iran, or on ships traveling to or from Iranian ports, or on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The announcement need not specify the full scope, duration, or enforcement parameters of the blockade. An announcement of a partial or targeted blockade qualifies, including one limited to specific vessel categories, port areas, or Iranian coastal zones, provided it clearly announces the interdiction of Iranian maritime traffic as an unconditional policy. A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government’s present implementation of a blockade, previously-unannounced prior implementation of a blockade, or definitive decision to implement a blockade. A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify a blockade. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe a blockade, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference a blockade by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of a blockade is clearly and unambiguously communicated. A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify. The following do not qualify: - Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official; - Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government; - Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or implement a blockade; - Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; and - Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional imposition rather than announcing a present and decided position. Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether a blockade is ever actually implemented. Resolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and United States Central Command (CENTCOM), or the official representatives of the United States government.

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the imposition of a naval blockade on Iran, or on ships traveling to or from Iranian ports, or on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The announcement need not specify the full scope, duration, or enforcement parameters of the blockade. An announcement of a partial or targeted blockade qualifies, including one limited to specific vessel categories, port areas, or Iranian coastal zones, provided it clearly announces the interdiction of Iranian maritime traffic as an unconditional policy. A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government’s present implementation of a blockade, previously-unannounced prior implementation of a blockade, or definitive decision to implement a blockade. A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify a blockade. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe a blockade, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference a blockade by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of a blockade is clearly and unambiguously communicated. A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify. The following do not qualify: - Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official; - Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government; - Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or implement a blockade; - Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; and - Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional imposition rather than announcing a present and decided position. Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether a blockade is ever actually implemented. Resolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and United States Central Command (CENTCOM), or the official representatives of the United States government.

Event

US announces blockade on Iran by...?

Resolve
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Trades 24h
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Advanced data

Market metrics (raw)

{
  "p_normalized": [
    0.998,
    0.002
  ],
  "activity": {
    "trades_24h": null,
    "volume_7d_usd": 1662013.5709640002,
    "volume_24h_usd": 494243.8166099999,
    "open_interest_usd": 201884.92217
  },
  "leader_outcome_id": 0
}

Depth / impact

Yes

  • 100 {"buy":5932.621440000001,"sell":77546.58899}
  • 200 {"buy":5932.621440000001,"sell":104238.52569}
  • 500 {"buy":5932.621440000001,"sell":116963.93831}
  • —

No

  • 100 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
  • 200 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
  • 500 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
  • —

Order books

Outcome 0

Bids (top 5)

  • {"size":33025.54,"price":0.997}
  • {"size":8243.82,"price":0.996}
  • {"size":18130.43,"price":0.995}
  • {"size":2500,"price":0.994}
  • {"size":2299.99,"price":0.991}

Asks (top 5)

  • {"size":5938.56,"price":0.999}

Outcome 1

Bids (top 5)

  • {"size":5938.56,"price":0.001}

Asks (top 5)

  • {"size":33025.54,"price":0.003}
  • {"size":8243.82,"price":0.004}
  • {"size":18130.43,"price":0.005}
  • {"size":2500,"price":0.006}
  • {"size":2299.99,"price":0.009}