Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

OPENBinary · Closes 1/1/2027, 12:59:00 PM

POLITICSIRANTRUMPMIDDLE EASTISRAELGEOPOLITICSWORLDKHAMENEIREZA PAHLAVIIRAN REGIME
Open on Polymarket ↗

Score

95

Good

24h vol

$138,002

7d vol

$806,178

Open int.

$457,607

Activity

120 traders · 121 signals · updated 3 min. ago

Score breakdown

6 min. ago
Liquidity1
Spread1
Tradability1
Time left1

Execution notes

No major liquidity or timing warnings.

OPEN_AND_TWO_SIDEDSPREAD_OKDEPTH_STRONGPLENTY_OF_TIMEDATA_QUALITY_HIGH

Outcomes

Yes

Mid 5.5¢·Bid 0.05·Ask 0.06

No Lead

Mid 94.5¢·Bid 0.94·Ask 0.95

Price (MID)Entropy0·Datahigh

Real-time mid prices from Polymarket CLOB

Updating…
Yes
No

Signals on this market

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Top traders

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Context

Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power. Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify. Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power. Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify. Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Resolution source

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Event

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Resolve
—
Trades 24h
—
Advanced data

Market metrics (raw)

{
  "p_normalized": [
    0.055,
    0.945
  ],
  "activity": {
    "trades_24h": null,
    "volume_7d_usd": 806178.0288339999,
    "volume_24h_usd": 138002.244253,
    "open_interest_usd": 457607.0923
  },
  "leader_outcome_id": 1
}

Depth / impact

Yes

  • 100 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
  • 200 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
  • 500 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
  • —

No

  • 100 {"buy":62294.901,"sell":41237.9598}
  • 200 {"buy":264863.7618,"sell":128604.0756}
  • 500 {"buy":2739091.6519,"sell":233183.5993}
  • —

Order books

Outcome 1

Bids (top 5)

  • {"size":43870.17,"price":0.94}
  • {"size":93942.06,"price":0.93}
  • {"size":57263.08,"price":0.92}
  • {"size":53320.31,"price":0.91}
  • {"size":3751.12,"price":0.9}

Asks (top 5)

  • {"size":65573.58,"price":0.95}
  • {"size":211009.23,"price":0.96}
  • {"size":1010345.36,"price":0.97}
  • {"size":185765.74,"price":0.98}
  • {"size":1325396.43,"price":0.99}

Outcome 0

Bids (top 5)

  • {"size":65573.58,"price":0.05}
  • {"size":211009.23,"price":0.04}
  • {"size":1010345.36,"price":0.03}
  • {"size":185765.74,"price":0.02}
  • {"size":1325396.43,"price":0.01}

Asks (top 5)

  • {"size":43870.17,"price":0.06}
  • {"size":93942.06,"price":0.07}
  • {"size":57263.08,"price":0.08}
  • {"size":53320.31,"price":0.09}
  • {"size":3751.12,"price":0.1}