Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?

OPENBinary · Closes 1/28/2027, 12:59:00 PM

TRUMPFEDFED RATESECONOMYFOMCRECURRINGECONOMIC POLICYMACRO INDICATORSGLOBAL RATESKEVIN WARSH

Open on Polymarket ↗

Score

Good

24h vol

$384

7d vol

$79,882

Open int.

$68,558

Activity

2 traders · 2 signals · updated 56 sec. ago

Score breakdown

6 min. ago

Liquidity1

Spread1

Tradability1

Time left1

Execution notes

No major liquidity or timing warnings.

OPEN_AND_TWO_SIDEDSPREAD_OKDEPTH_STRONGPLENTY_OF_TIMEDATA_QUALITY_HIGH

Outcomes

Yes

Mid 18.5¢·Bid 0.18·Ask 0.19

No Lead

Mid 81.5¢·Bid 0.81·Ask 0.82

Price (MID)Entropy0·DatahighCtrl or ⌘ + scroll to pan/zoom

Real-time mid prices from Polymarket CLOB

Updating…

Yes

Signals on this market

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Top traders

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Context

Description

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

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Resolution criteria

https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm

Resolution source

https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm

Event

Fed Decision in January?

Resolve: —
Trades 24h: —

Advanced data

Market metrics (raw)

{
  "p_normalized": [
    0.185,
    0.815
  ],
  "activity": {
    "trades_24h": null,
    "volume_7d_usd": 79882.136221,
    "volume_24h_usd": 383.619255,
    "open_interest_usd": 68557.8902
  },
  "leader_outcome_id": 1
}

Depth / impact

Yes

100 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
200 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
500 {"buy":324.61310000000003,"sell":427.02299999999997}

100 {"buy":1945.3269999999998,"sell":1383.8769000000002}
200 {"buy":13910.9805,"sell":23298.052900000002}
500 {"buy":34753.592099999994,"sell":34991.382900000004}

Order books

Outcome 0

Bids (top 5)

{"size":2372.35,"price":0.18}
{"size":14416.45,"price":0.17}
{"size":7205.49,"price":0.16}
{"size":17400,"price":0.15}
{"size":947,"price":0.08}

Asks (top 5)

{"size":1708.49,"price":0.19}
{"size":27392.72,"price":0.2}
{"size":12983,"price":0.21}
{"size":1842,"price":0.22}
{"size":436,"price":0.24}

Outcome 1

Bids (top 5)

{"size":1708.49,"price":0.81}
{"size":27392.72,"price":0.8}
{"size":12983,"price":0.79}
{"size":1842,"price":0.78}
{"size":436,"price":0.76}

Asks (top 5)

{"size":2372.35,"price":0.82}
{"size":14416.45,"price":0.83}
{"size":7205.49,"price":0.84}
{"size":17400,"price":0.85}
{"size":947,"price":0.92}