Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?

OPENBinary · Closes 12/10/2026, 12:59:00 PM

TRUMPFEDFED RATESECONOMYFOMCRECURRINGECONOMIC POLICYMACRO INDICATORSGLOBAL RATESKEVIN WARSH
Open on Polymarket ↗

Score

100

Good

24h vol

$58,414

7d vol

$1,148,776

Open int.

$205,334

Activity

—

Score breakdown

2 hr. ago
Liquidity1
Spread1
Tradability1
Time left1

Execution notes

No major liquidity or timing warnings.

OPEN_AND_TWO_SIDEDSPREAD_TIGHTDEPTH_STRONGPLENTY_OF_TIMEDATA_QUALITY_HIGH

Outcomes

Yes

Mid 0.55¢·Bid 0.01·Ask 0.01

No Lead

Mid 99.45¢·Bid 0.99·Ask 1

Price (MID)Entropy0·Datahigh

Real-time mid prices from Polymarket CLOB

Updating…
Yes
No

Signals on this market

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Top traders

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Context

Description

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Resolution criteria

https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm

Resolution source

https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm

Event

Fed Decision in December?

Resolve
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Trades 24h
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Advanced data

Market metrics (raw)

{
  "p_normalized": [
    0.0055000000000000005,
    0.9945
  ],
  "activity": {
    "trades_24h": null,
    "volume_7d_usd": 1148776.170869,
    "volume_24h_usd": 58413.910641,
    "open_interest_usd": 205333.50106
  },
  "leader_outcome_id": 1
}

Depth / impact

Yes

  • 100 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
  • 200 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
  • 500 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
  • —

No

  • 100 {"buy":5723917.085080001,"sell":89279.98825}
  • 200 {"buy":5723917.085080001,"sell":107276.87915}
  • 500 {"buy":5723917.085080001,"sell":116989.84273}
  • —

Order books

Outcome 1

Bids (top 5)

  • {"size":33595.94,"price":0.994}
  • {"size":21598.63,"price":0.993}
  • {"size":13729.75,"price":0.992}
  • {"size":1394.28,"price":0.991}
  • {"size":1351.91,"price":0.99}

Asks (top 5)

  • {"size":78610.52,"price":0.995}
  • {"size":759387.32,"price":0.996}
  • {"size":916111.04,"price":0.997}
  • {"size":2682527.6,"price":0.998}
  • {"size":1300124.72,"price":0.999}

Outcome 0

Bids (top 5)

  • {"size":78610.52,"price":0.005}
  • {"size":759387.32,"price":0.004}
  • {"size":916111.04,"price":0.003}
  • {"size":2682527.6,"price":0.002}
  • {"size":1300124.72,"price":0.001}

Asks (top 5)

  • {"size":33595.94,"price":0.006}
  • {"size":21598.63,"price":0.007}
  • {"size":13729.75,"price":0.008}
  • {"size":1394.28,"price":0.009}
  • {"size":1351.91,"price":0.01}