Will the Democrats win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026?

Will the Democrats win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026?

OPENBinary · Closes 11/4/2026, 12:59:00 PM

POLITICSELECTIONSUS ELECTIONMIDTERMSNORTH CAROLINA MIDTERMSENATE ELECTIONSROY COOPERMICHAEL WHATLEYTOSSUP SENATE RACESSENATE MIDTERM WINNERSTOSSUPSNORTH CAROLINA SENATE
Open on Polymarket ↗

Score

99

Good

24h vol

$12,706

7d vol

$46,783

Open int.

$132,658

Activity

7 traders · 7 signals · updated 25 min. ago

Score breakdown

52 min. ago
Liquidity1
Spread1
Tradability1
Time left1

Execution notes

No major liquidity or timing warnings.

OPEN_AND_TWO_SIDEDSPREAD_OKDEPTH_STRONGPLENTY_OF_TIMEDATA_QUALITY_HIGH

Outcomes

Yes Lead

Mid 97.4¢·Bid 0.97·Ask 0.98

No

Mid 2.6¢·Bid 0.02·Ask 0.03

Price (MID)Entropy0·Datahigh

Real-time mid prices from Polymarket CLOB

Updating…
Yes
No

Signals on this market

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Top traders

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Context

Description

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm North Carolina U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm North Carolina U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Resolution source

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Event

North Carolina Senate Election Winner

Resolve
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Trades 24h
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Advanced data

Market metrics (raw)

{
  "p_normalized": [
    0.974,
    0.026000000000000002
  ],
  "activity": {
    "trades_24h": null,
    "volume_7d_usd": 46782.568875000004,
    "volume_24h_usd": 12706.185013,
    "open_interest_usd": 132657.96394
  },
  "leader_outcome_id": 0
}

Depth / impact

Yes

  • 100 {"buy":3163.22197,"sell":1598.3245499999998}
  • 200 {"buy":80515.95092,"sell":60903.022939999995}
  • 500 {"buy":180443.12721,"sell":75665.25748999999}
  • —

No

  • 100 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
  • 200 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
  • 500 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
  • —

Order books

Outcome 0

Bids (top 5)

  • {"size":24,"price":0.971}
  • {"size":888.26,"price":0.97}
  • {"size":312,"price":0.969}
  • {"size":425.99,"price":0.965}
  • {"size":5037,"price":0.964}

Asks (top 5)

  • {"size":541.44,"price":0.977}
  • {"size":563.53,"price":0.978}
  • {"size":135,"price":0.979}
  • {"size":985.69,"price":0.982}
  • {"size":999.99,"price":0.983}

Outcome 1

Bids (top 5)

  • {"size":541.44,"price":0.023}
  • {"size":563.53,"price":0.022}
  • {"size":135,"price":0.021}
  • {"size":985.69,"price":0.018}
  • {"size":999.99,"price":0.017}

Asks (top 5)

  • {"size":24,"price":0.029}
  • {"size":888.26,"price":0.03}
  • {"size":312,"price":0.031}
  • {"size":425.99,"price":0.035}
  • {"size":5037,"price":0.036}