Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

OPENBinary · Closes 11/4/2026, 12:59:00 PM

POLITICSELECTIONSUNITED STATESUS ELECTIONGLOBAL ELECTIONSWORLD ELECTIONSMIDTERMSEARN 3.25%PARENT FOR DERIVATIVEMAIN ELECTIONCONTROL & SEATS
Open on Polymarket ↗

Score

95

Good

24h vol

$612,034

7d vol

$5,356,796

Open int.

$8,165,695

Activity

209 traders · 214 signals · updated 1 min. ago

Score breakdown

14 min. ago
Liquidity1
Spread1
Tradability1
Time left1

Execution notes

No major liquidity or timing warnings.

OPEN_AND_TWO_SIDEDSPREAD_OKDEPTH_STRONGPLENTY_OF_TIMEDATA_QUALITY_HIGH

Outcomes

Yes Lead

Mid 93.5¢·Bid 0.93·Ask 0.94

No

Mid 6.5¢·Bid 0.06·Ask 0.07

Price (MID)Entropy0·Datahigh

Real-time mid prices from Polymarket CLOB

Updating…
Yes
No

Signals on this market

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Context

Description

This market will resolve according to the party that wins control of the United States House of Representatives in the 2026 United States midterm election. A party wins control of the United States House of Representatives if it wins a majority of the chamber’s voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first elected Speaker of the House of the Congress that convenes after the 2026 midterm election is affiliated. The following rules govern the counting of seats for determining which party wins control of the chamber. All House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress are included. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat. Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected. House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, a party are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve according to the party that wins control of the United States House of Representatives in the 2026 United States midterm election. A party wins control of the United States House of Representatives if it wins a majority of the chamber’s voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first elected Speaker of the House of the Congress that convenes after the 2026 midterm election is affiliated. The following rules govern the counting of seats for determining which party wins control of the chamber. All House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress are included. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat. Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected. House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, a party are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Resolution source

The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Event

Which party will win the House in 2026?

Resolve
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Trades 24h
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Advanced data

Market metrics (raw)

{
  "p_normalized": [
    0.935,
    0.065
  ],
  "activity": {
    "trades_24h": null,
    "volume_7d_usd": 5356796.121415,
    "volume_24h_usd": 612033.856776,
    "open_interest_usd": 8165694.5281
  },
  "leader_outcome_id": 0
}

Depth / impact

Yes

  • 100 {"buy":2002057.0071999999,"sell":2707533.0684}
  • 200 {"buy":6006030.2722,"sell":3898996.7416000003}
  • 500 {"buy":8681076.667499999,"sell":7326445.417100001}
  • —

No

  • 100 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
  • 200 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
  • 500 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
  • —

Order books

Outcome 1

Bids (top 5)

  • {"size":2129847.88,"price":0.06}
  • {"size":4214708.7,"price":0.05}
  • {"size":2518296.01,"price":0.04}
  • {"size":44165.17,"price":0.03}
  • {"size":219022.46,"price":0.02}

Asks (top 5)

  • {"size":2911325.88,"price":0.07}
  • {"size":1295069.21,"price":0.08}
  • {"size":1724712.37,"price":0.09}
  • {"size":937515.87,"price":0.1}
  • {"size":1139546.22,"price":0.11}

Outcome 0

Bids (top 5)

  • {"size":2911325.88,"price":0.93}
  • {"size":1295069.21,"price":0.92}
  • {"size":1724712.37,"price":0.91}
  • {"size":937515.87,"price":0.9}
  • {"size":1139546.22,"price":0.89}

Asks (top 5)

  • {"size":2129847.88,"price":0.94}
  • {"size":4214708.7,"price":0.95}
  • {"size":2518296.01,"price":0.96}
  • {"size":44165.17,"price":0.97}
  • {"size":219022.46,"price":0.98}