Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027?

Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027?

OPENBinary · Closes 1/1/2027, 12:59:00 PM

FINANCEFED RATESECONOMYRECURRINGTREASURIESKEVIN WARSHUS INFLATION AUGUSTUS CPI
Open on Polymarket ↗

Score

90

Good

24h vol

$3,953

7d vol

$12,958

Open int.

$44,950

Activity

1 traders · 1 signals · updated 34 min. ago

Score breakdown

43 min. ago
Liquidity1
Spread1
Tradability1
Time left1

Execution notes

No major liquidity or timing warnings.

OPEN_AND_TWO_SIDEDSPREAD_OKDEPTH_STRONGPLENTY_OF_TIMEDATA_QUALITY_HIGH

Outcomes

Yes

Mid 4.45¢·Bid 0.04·Ask 0.05

No Lead

Mid 95.55¢·Bid 0.95·Ask 0.96

Price (MID)Entropy0·Datahigh

Real-time mid prices from Polymarket CLOB

Updating…
Yes
No

Signals on this market

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Top traders

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Context

Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time. The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).

Resolution criteria

https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025

Resolution source

https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025

Event

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

Resolve
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Trades 24h
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Advanced data

Market metrics (raw)

{
  "p_normalized": [
    0.0445,
    0.9555
  ],
  "activity": {
    "trades_24h": null,
    "volume_7d_usd": 12957.788349,
    "volume_24h_usd": 3953.406652,
    "open_interest_usd": 44949.79808
  },
  "leader_outcome_id": 1
}

Depth / impact

Yes

  • 100 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
  • 200 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
  • 500 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
  • —

No

  • 100 {"buy":20683.781199999998,"sell":108.60172}
  • 200 {"buy":20683.781199999998,"sell":10360.10922}
  • 500 {"buy":348516.56435999996,"sell":23128.73345}
  • —

Order books

Outcome 0

Bids (top 5)

  • {"size":114.8,"price":0.039}
  • {"size":40,"price":0.038}
  • {"size":5,"price":0.037}
  • {"size":21296.85,"price":0.036}
  • {"size":300,"price":0.02}

Asks (top 5)

  • {"size":8.6,"price":0.05}
  • {"size":26.68,"price":0.051}
  • {"size":79.4,"price":0.054}
  • {"size":515.5,"price":0.055}
  • {"size":200,"price":0.06}

Outcome 1

Bids (top 5)

  • {"size":8.6,"price":0.95}
  • {"size":26.68,"price":0.949}
  • {"size":79.4,"price":0.946}
  • {"size":515.5,"price":0.945}
  • {"size":200,"price":0.94}

Asks (top 5)

  • {"size":114.8,"price":0.961}
  • {"size":40,"price":0.962}
  • {"size":5,"price":0.963}
  • {"size":21296.85,"price":0.964}
  • {"size":300,"price":0.98}