Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?

OPENBinary · Closes 11/4/2026, 12:59:00 PM

POLITICSELECTIONSUS ELECTIONMIDTERMSCALIFORNIA GOVERNORCALIFORNIA MIDTERMGOVERNOR ELECTIONS
Open on Polymarket ↗

Score

100

Good

24h vol

$88,141

7d vol

$567,164

Open int.

$714,388

Activity

38 traders · 38 signals · updated 6 min. ago

Score breakdown

12 min. ago
Liquidity1
Spread1
Tradability1
Time left1

Execution notes

No major liquidity or timing warnings.

OPEN_AND_TWO_SIDEDSPREAD_TIGHTDEPTH_STRONGPLENTY_OF_TIMEDATA_QUALITY_HIGH

Outcomes

Yes

Mid 1.95¢·Bid 0.02·Ask 0.02

No Lead

Mid 98.05¢·Bid 0.98·Ask 0.98

Price (MID)Entropy0·Datahigh

Real-time mid prices from Polymarket CLOB

Updating…
Yes
No

Signals on this market

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Top traders

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Context

Description

This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.

Resolution source

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.

Event

California Governor Election Winner

Resolve
—
Trades 24h
—
Advanced data

Market metrics (raw)

{
  "p_normalized": [
    0.019500000000000003,
    0.9805
  ],
  "activity": {
    "trades_24h": null,
    "volume_7d_usd": 567164.45312,
    "volume_24h_usd": 88141.07410700001,
    "open_interest_usd": 714387.92874
  },
  "leader_outcome_id": 1
}

Depth / impact

Yes

  • 100 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
  • 200 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
  • 500 {"buy":13.64,"sell":20.273}
  • —

No

  • 100 {"buy":162902.96917,"sell":110446.94608}
  • 200 {"buy":4620146.06793,"sell":259327.68347000002}
  • 500 {"buy":4620146.06793,"sell":566610.9471899999}
  • —

Order books

Outcome 1

Bids (top 5)

  • {"size":682,"price":0.98}
  • {"size":4465,"price":0.979}
  • {"size":510.58,"price":0.978}
  • {"size":4576.5,"price":0.977}
  • {"size":7191,"price":0.976}

Asks (top 5)

  • {"size":1067,"price":0.981}
  • {"size":3077.93,"price":0.982}
  • {"size":15020,"price":0.983}
  • {"size":10334,"price":0.984}
  • {"size":17016.5,"price":0.986}

Outcome 0

Bids (top 5)

  • {"size":1067,"price":0.019}
  • {"size":3077.93,"price":0.018}
  • {"size":15020,"price":0.017}
  • {"size":10334,"price":0.016}
  • {"size":17016.5,"price":0.014}

Asks (top 5)

  • {"size":682,"price":0.02}
  • {"size":4465,"price":0.021}
  • {"size":510.58,"price":0.022}
  • {"size":4576.5,"price":0.023}
  • {"size":7191,"price":0.024}