Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?

OPENBinary · Closes 1/1/2027, 1:00:00 PM

CRYPTOBITCOINSATOSHICRYPTO CULTURE

Open on Polymarket ↗

Score

100

Good

24h vol

$12,662

7d vol

$50,640

Open int.

$67,102

Activity

39 traders · 39 signals · updated 1 min. ago

Score breakdown

45 min. ago

Liquidity1

Spread1

Tradability1

Time left1

Execution notes

No major liquidity or timing warnings.

OPEN_AND_TWO_SIDEDSPREAD_TIGHTDEPTH_STRONGPLENTY_OF_TIMEDATA_QUALITY_HIGH

Outcomes

Yes

Mid 2.95¢·Bid 0.03·Ask 0.03

No Lead

Mid 97.05¢·Bid 0.97·Ask 0.97

Price (MID)Entropy0·DatahighCtrl or ⌘ + scroll to pan/zoom

Real-time mid prices from Polymarket CLOB

Updating…

Yes

Signals on this market

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Top traders

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Context

Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham’s Intel Explorer shows an “Outflow” or “Swaps” transaction at any time between January 9, 2026, 1:00 PM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Arkham’s Intel Explorer, specifically the entity page for Satoshi Nakamoto available at https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto If Arkham becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible sources.

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Resolution criteria

https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto

Resolution source

https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto

Event

Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?

Resolve: —
Trades 24h: —

Advanced data

Market metrics (raw)

{
  "p_normalized": [
    0.029500000000000002,
    0.9705
  ],
  "activity": {
    "trades_24h": null,
    "volume_7d_usd": 50640.125764,
    "volume_24h_usd": 12662.434568,
    "open_interest_usd": 67101.83784
  },
  "leader_outcome_id": 1
}

Depth / impact

Yes

100 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
200 {"buy":90.5319,"sell":48.154210000000006}
500 {"buy":90.5319,"sell":48.154210000000006}

100 {"buy":233874.32730000003,"sell":20232.05279}
200 {"buy":389721.31117000006,"sell":31563.587130000004}
500 {"buy":3615284.29208,"sell":35895.96363}

Order books

Outcome 0

Bids (top 5)

{"size":1660.49,"price":0.029}
{"size":9948.28,"price":0.028}
{"size":40198.13,"price":0.027}
{"size":15664.2,"price":0.026}
{"size":52979.74,"price":0.025}

Asks (top 5)

{"size":3017.73,"price":0.03}
{"size":2000,"price":0.032}
{"size":170,"price":0.034}
{"size":10990,"price":0.035}
{"size":2510,"price":0.036}

Outcome 1

Bids (top 5)

{"size":3017.73,"price":0.97}
{"size":2000,"price":0.968}
{"size":170,"price":0.966}
{"size":10990,"price":0.965}
{"size":2510,"price":0.964}

Asks (top 5)

{"size":1660.49,"price":0.971}
{"size":9948.28,"price":0.972}
{"size":40198.13,"price":0.973}
{"size":15664.2,"price":0.974}
{"size":52979.74,"price":0.975}