Will Russia invade another country in 2026?

Will Russia invade another country in 2026?

OPENBinary · Closes 1/1/2028, 12:59:00 PM

POLITICSRUSSIANATOPUTINARMENIAMILITARY ACTIONSGEOPOLITICS
Open on Polymarket ↗

Score

94

Good

24h vol

$999

7d vol

$15,881

Open int.

$52,971

Activity

13 traders · 13 signals · updated 9 min. ago

Score breakdown

14 min. ago
Liquidity1
Spread1
Tradability1
Time left1

Execution notes

  • DEPTH_MODERATE
OPEN_AND_TWO_SIDEDSPREAD_TIGHTPLENTY_OF_TIMEDATA_QUALITY_HIGH

Outcomes

Yes

Mid 3.25¢·Bid 0.03·Ask 0.03

No Lead

Mid 96.75¢·Bid 0.97·Ask 0.97

Price (MID)Entropy0·Datahigh

Real-time mid prices from Polymarket CLOB

Updating…
Yes
No

Signals on this market

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Top traders

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Context

Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Resolution source

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Event

Will Russia invade another country by...?

Resolve
—
Trades 24h
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Advanced data

Market metrics (raw)

{
  "p_normalized": [
    0.0325,
    0.9675
  ],
  "activity": {
    "trades_24h": null,
    "volume_7d_usd": 15880.508816,
    "volume_24h_usd": 998.7726640000001,
    "open_interest_usd": 52970.80396
  },
  "leader_outcome_id": 1
}

Depth / impact

Yes

  • 100 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
  • 200 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
  • 500 {"buy":16.48218,"sell":33.93973}
  • —

No

  • 100 {"buy":7829.95544,"sell":1323.03836}
  • 200 {"buy":17739.60802,"sell":6944.64729}
  • 500 {"buy":543166.53808,"sell":25317.3587}
  • —

Order books

Outcome 1

Bids (top 5)

  • {"size":484.77,"price":0.966}
  • {"size":328.42,"price":0.965}
  • {"size":557.91,"price":0.964}
  • {"size":75.25,"price":0.954}
  • {"size":1720,"price":0.953}

Asks (top 5)

  • {"size":1094.83,"price":0.969}
  • {"size":6403.71,"price":0.97}
  • {"size":121.83,"price":0.971}
  • {"size":100,"price":0.972}
  • {"size":350.02,"price":0.977}

Outcome 0

Bids (top 5)

  • {"size":1094.83,"price":0.031}
  • {"size":6403.71,"price":0.03}
  • {"size":121.83,"price":0.029}
  • {"size":100,"price":0.028}
  • {"size":350.02,"price":0.023}

Asks (top 5)

  • {"size":484.77,"price":0.034}
  • {"size":328.42,"price":0.035}
  • {"size":557.91,"price":0.036}
  • {"size":75.25,"price":0.046}
  • {"size":1720,"price":0.047}