Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026?

Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026?

OPENBinary · Closes 1/1/2027, 12:59:00 PM

POLITICSUKRAINENATOPOLANDGEOPOLITICSWORLD
Open on Polymarket ↗

Score

98

Good

24h vol

$556

7d vol

$34,728

Open int.

$69,784

Activity

11 traders · 11 signals · updated 8 min. ago

Score breakdown

12 min. ago
Liquidity1
Spread1
Tradability1
Time left1

Execution notes

No major liquidity or timing warnings.

OPEN_AND_TWO_SIDEDSPREAD_TIGHTDEPTH_STRONGPLENTY_OF_TIMEDATA_QUALITY_HIGH

Outcomes

Yes

Mid 4.25¢·Bid 0.04·Ask 0.04

No Lead

Mid 95.75¢·Bid 0.96·Ask 0.96

Price (MID)Entropy0·Datahigh

Real-time mid prices from Polymarket CLOB

Updating…
Yes
No

Signals on this market

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Top traders

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Context

Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any NATO country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by NATO member states or Russia as of May 28, 2025, will be considered the sovereign territory of those countries. Hybrid or “grey zone” operations conducted by unmarked personnel will qualify if they are confirmed to be Russian operatives and are intended to establish de facto control over territory, as occurred in Crimea (2014) or Donbas (2014–2022). The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any NATO country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by NATO member states or Russia as of May 28, 2025, will be considered the sovereign territory of those countries. Hybrid or “grey zone” operations conducted by unmarked personnel will qualify if they are confirmed to be Russian operatives and are intended to establish de facto control over territory, as occurred in Crimea (2014) or Donbas (2014–2022). The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

Resolution source

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

Event

Will Russia invade a NATO country by...?

Resolve
—
Trades 24h
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Advanced data

Market metrics (raw)

{
  "p_normalized": [
    0.042499999999999996,
    0.9575
  ],
  "activity": {
    "trades_24h": null,
    "volume_7d_usd": 34727.761874,
    "volume_24h_usd": 556.06,
    "open_interest_usd": 69783.59604
  },
  "leader_outcome_id": 1
}

Depth / impact

Yes

  • 100 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
  • 200 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
  • 500 {"buy":21.942359999999997,"sell":5.534590000000001}
  • —

No

  • 100 {"buy":379.33357,"sell":6880.977639999999}
  • 200 {"buy":13356.11199,"sell":27234.033249999997}
  • 500 {"buy":366283.49575999996,"sell":27996.18898}
  • —

Order books

Outcome 1

Bids (top 5)

  • {"size":498.69,"price":0.956}
  • {"size":9.36,"price":0.955}
  • {"size":92.52,"price":0.953}
  • {"size":1058.07,"price":0.952}
  • {"size":5012,"price":0.951}

Asks (top 5)

  • {"size":134.99,"price":0.959}
  • {"size":250.92,"price":0.96}
  • {"size":9.36,"price":0.961}
  • {"size":67.5,"price":0.968}
  • {"size":454.68,"price":0.969}

Outcome 0

Bids (top 5)

  • {"size":134.99,"price":0.041}
  • {"size":250.92,"price":0.04}
  • {"size":9.36,"price":0.039}
  • {"size":67.5,"price":0.032}
  • {"size":454.68,"price":0.031}

Asks (top 5)

  • {"size":498.69,"price":0.044}
  • {"size":9.36,"price":0.045}
  • {"size":92.52,"price":0.047}
  • {"size":1058.07,"price":0.048}
  • {"size":5012,"price":0.049}