Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

OPENBinary · Closes 12/31/2026, 8:00:00 PM

Open on Polymarket ↗

Score

99

Good

24h vol

$344,577

7d vol

$405,209

Open int.

$111,545

Activity

—

Score breakdown

2 mo. ago
Liquidity1
Spread1
Tradability1
Time left1

Execution notes

No major liquidity or timing warnings.

OPEN_AND_TWO_SIDEDSPREAD_OKDEPTH_STRONGPLENTY_OF_TIMEDATA_QUALITY_HIGH

Outcomes

Yes Lead

Mid 99.2¢·Bid 0.99·Ask 1

No

Mid 0.8¢·Bid 0.01·Ask 0.01

Price (MID)Entropy0·Datahigh

Real-time mid prices from Polymarket CLOB

Updating…
Yes
No

Signals on this market

Click a column to sort

Loading signals…

Top traders

Click a column to sort

Loading traders…

Context

Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Kostyantynivka railroad station located on Pravoberezhna vulytsia by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Train Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka3.jpg Train Station Location in Kostyantynivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka2.jpg Kostyantynivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka1.jpg Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/hZ6ch5jVRvkNFY317 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Kostyantynivka railroad station located on Pravoberezhna vulytsia by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Train Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka3.jpg Train Station Location in Kostyantynivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka2.jpg Kostyantynivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka1.jpg Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/hZ6ch5jVRvkNFY317 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.

Resolution source

The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

Resolve
—
Trades 24h
—
Advanced data

Market metrics (raw)

{
  "p_normalized": [
    0.992,
    0.008
  ],
  "activity": {
    "trades_24h": null,
    "volume_7d_usd": 405209.234793,
    "volume_24h_usd": 344577.129734,
    "open_interest_usd": 111545.10509
  },
  "leader_outcome_id": 0
}

Depth / impact

Yes

  • 100 {"buy":78398.98465999999,"sell":5626.107179999999}
  • 200 {"buy":78398.98465999999,"sell":7344.6671799999995}
  • 500 {"buy":78398.98465999999,"sell":14351.65162}
  • —

No

  • 100 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
  • 200 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
  • 500 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
  • —

Order books

Outcome 1

Bids (top 5)

  • {"size":2885,"price":0.005}
  • {"size":2000,"price":0.004}
  • {"size":850.62,"price":0.003}
  • {"size":55581.74,"price":0.002}
  • {"size":17235,"price":0.001}

Asks (top 5)

  • {"size":15,"price":0.011}
  • {"size":200,"price":0.012}
  • {"size":200,"price":0.013}
  • {"size":2317.73,"price":0.014}
  • {"size":2476.64,"price":0.015}

Outcome 0

Bids (top 5)

  • {"size":15,"price":0.989}
  • {"size":200,"price":0.988}
  • {"size":200,"price":0.987}
  • {"size":2317.73,"price":0.986}
  • {"size":2476.64,"price":0.985}

Asks (top 5)

  • {"size":2885,"price":0.995}
  • {"size":2000,"price":0.996}
  • {"size":850.62,"price":0.997}
  • {"size":55581.74,"price":0.998}
  • {"size":17235,"price":0.999}