Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?

Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?

OPENBinary · Closes 1/1/2027, 12:59:00 PM

POLITICSIRANGEOPOLITICSSHAHREZA PAHLAVIIRAN REGIME
Open on Polymarket ↗

Score

100

Good

24h vol

$4,668

7d vol

$27,333

Open int.

$90,949

Activity

23 traders · 23 signals · updated 10 min. ago

Score breakdown

30 min. ago
Liquidity1
Spread1
Tradability1
Time left1

Execution notes

No major liquidity or timing warnings.

OPEN_AND_TWO_SIDEDSPREAD_TIGHTDEPTH_STRONGPLENTY_OF_TIMEDATA_QUALITY_HIGH

Outcomes

Yes

Mid 2¢·Bid 0.02·Ask 0.02

No Lead

Mid 98¢·Bid 0.98·Ask 0.98

Price (MID)Entropy0·Datahigh

Real-time mid prices from Polymarket CLOB

Updating…
Yes
No

Signals on this market

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Top traders

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Context

Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify. If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify. If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Resolution source

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Event

Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?

Resolve
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Trades 24h
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Advanced data

Market metrics (raw)

{
  "p_normalized": [
    0.019999999999999997,
    0.98
  ],
  "activity": {
    "trades_24h": null,
    "volume_7d_usd": 27333.132363,
    "volume_24h_usd": 4667.752,
    "open_interest_usd": 90948.90968
  },
  "leader_outcome_id": 1
}

Depth / impact

Yes

  • 100 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
  • 200 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
  • 500 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
  • —

No

  • 100 {"buy":12331.331250000001,"sell":8622.15055}
  • 200 {"buy":186215.43346,"sell":8631.80055}
  • 500 {"buy":186215.43346,"sell":15687.863670000002}
  • —

Order books

Outcome 0

Bids (top 5)

  • {"size":390.07,"price":0.018}
  • {"size":1304,"price":0.017}
  • {"size":500,"price":0.016}
  • {"size":781.2,"price":0.015}
  • {"size":1866,"price":0.014}

Asks (top 5)

  • {"size":5.1,"price":0.022}
  • {"size":609,"price":0.023}
  • {"size":999.36,"price":0.024}
  • {"size":5968.53,"price":0.025}
  • {"size":1060.86,"price":0.026}

Outcome 1

Bids (top 5)

  • {"size":5.1,"price":0.978}
  • {"size":609,"price":0.977}
  • {"size":999.36,"price":0.976}
  • {"size":5968.53,"price":0.975}
  • {"size":1060.86,"price":0.974}

Asks (top 5)

  • {"size":390.07,"price":0.982}
  • {"size":1304,"price":0.983}
  • {"size":500,"price":0.984}
  • {"size":781.2,"price":0.985}
  • {"size":1866,"price":0.986}