Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

OPENBinary · Closes 4/1/2027, 11:59:00 AM

POLITICSAWARDSGEOPOLITICSNOBELWORLDNOBEL PEACE PRIZENOBEL PRIZE
Open on Polymarket ↗

Score

93

Good

24h vol

$66,534

7d vol

$102,768

Open int.

$11,508

Activity

—

Score breakdown

3 wk. ago
Liquidity1
Spread1
Tradability1
Time left1

Execution notes

  • DEPTH_MODERATE
OPEN_AND_TWO_SIDEDSPREAD_OKPLENTY_OF_TIMEDATA_QUALITY_HIGH

Outcomes

Yes

Mid 0.7¢·Bid 0·Ask 0.01

No Lead

Mid 99.3¢·Bid 0.99·Ask 1

Price (MID)Entropy0·Datahigh

Real-time mid prices from Polymarket CLOB

Updating…
Yes
No

Signals on this market

Click a column to sort

Loading signals…

Top traders

Click a column to sort

Loading traders…

Context

Description

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.

Resolution source

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.

Event

Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026

Resolve
—
Trades 24h
—
Advanced data

Market metrics (raw)

{
  "p_normalized": [
    0.007,
    0.993
  ],
  "activity": {
    "trades_24h": null,
    "volume_7d_usd": 102767.63076199999,
    "volume_24h_usd": 66533.714282,
    "open_interest_usd": 11508.46961
  },
  "leader_outcome_id": 1
}

Depth / impact

Yes

  • 100 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
  • 200 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
  • 500 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
  • —

No

  • 100 {"buy":21558.406069999997,"sell":2314.6776000000004}
  • 200 {"buy":21558.406069999997,"sell":2515.2096000000006}
  • 500 {"buy":21558.406069999997,"sell":3007.9266000000002}
  • —

Order books

Outcome 0

Bids (top 5)

  • {"size":3540.96,"price":0.004}
  • {"size":4352.1,"price":0.003}
  • {"size":12505,"price":0.002}
  • {"size":1213.79,"price":0.001}

Asks (top 5)

  • {"size":1310.24,"price":0.01}
  • {"size":1020,"price":0.014}
  • {"size":12,"price":0.015}
  • {"size":204,"price":0.017}
  • {"size":60,"price":0.047}

Outcome 1

Bids (top 5)

  • {"size":1310.24,"price":0.99}
  • {"size":1020,"price":0.986}
  • {"size":12,"price":0.985}
  • {"size":204,"price":0.983}
  • {"size":60,"price":0.953}

Asks (top 5)

  • {"size":3540.96,"price":0.996}
  • {"size":4352.1,"price":0.997}
  • {"size":12505,"price":0.998}
  • {"size":1213.79,"price":0.999}