Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 4, 2026?

Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 4, 2026?

OPENBinary · Closes 11/1/2026, 7:59:00 AM

SAM ALTMANAIGPTOPENAITECHAI RELEASESASTRA
Open on Polymarket ↗

Score

97

Good

24h vol

$373,642

7d vol

$479,393

Open int.

$40,784

Activity

—

Score breakdown

2 mo. ago
Liquidity1
Spread1
Tradability1
Time left1

Execution notes

No major liquidity or timing warnings.

OPEN_AND_TWO_SIDEDSPREAD_TIGHTDEPTH_STRONGPLENTY_OF_TIMEDATA_QUALITY_HIGH

Outcomes

Yes Lead

Mid 99.8¢·Bid 1·Ask 1

No

Mid 0.2¢·Bid 0·Ask 0

Price (MID)Entropy0·Datahigh

Real-time mid prices from Polymarket CLOB

Updating…
Yes
No

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Context

Description

On August 1, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed “Astra,” describing an internal version of Astra as its “next major model.” You can read more about that here: https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/. This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI releases "Astra" or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting. Products labeled as GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or similar will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement. For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Resolution criteria

On August 1, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed “Astra,” describing an internal version of Astra as its “next major model.” You can read more about that here: https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/. This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI releases "Astra" or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting. Products labeled as GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or similar will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement. For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Resolution source

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Event

OpenAI’s Astra released by…?

Resolve
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Trades 24h
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Advanced data

Market metrics (raw)

{
  "p_normalized": [
    0.998,
    0.002
  ],
  "activity": {
    "trades_24h": null,
    "volume_7d_usd": 479393.2988960001,
    "volume_24h_usd": 373641.9197140001,
    "open_interest_usd": 40784.29997
  },
  "leader_outcome_id": 0
}

Depth / impact

Yes

  • 100 {"buy":9875.48463,"sell":21370.29766}
  • 200 {"buy":9875.48463,"sell":24346.9757}
  • 500 {"buy":9875.48463,"sell":30541.795149999994}
  • —

No

  • 100 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
  • 200 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
  • 500 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
  • —

Order books

Outcome 1

Bids (top 5)

  • {"size":9885.37,"price":0.001}

Asks (top 5)

  • {"size":15000,"price":0.003}
  • {"size":2499.99,"price":0.004}
  • {"size":627.93,"price":0.006}
  • {"size":2245.2,"price":0.009}
  • {"size":1010.1,"price":0.01}

Outcome 0

Bids (top 5)

  • {"size":15000,"price":0.997}
  • {"size":2499.99,"price":0.996}
  • {"size":627.93,"price":0.994}
  • {"size":2245.2,"price":0.991}
  • {"size":1010.1,"price":0.99}

Asks (top 5)

  • {"size":9885.37,"price":0.999}