Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?

OPENBinary · Closes 1/1/2027, 12:59:00 PM

FINANCEOPENAIIPOSRECURRINGBIG TECHIPOREWARDS 100, 4.5, 100 DEPRECOPENAI IPO

Open on Polymarket ↗

Score

Good

24h vol

$18,876

7d vol

$51,858

Open int.

$71,235

Activity

5 traders · 5 signals · updated 52 min. ago

Score breakdown

52 min. ago

Liquidity1

Spread1

Tradability1

Time left1

Execution notes

No major liquidity or timing warnings.

OPEN_AND_TWO_SIDEDSPREAD_OKDEPTH_STRONGPLENTY_OF_TIMEDATA_QUALITY_HIGH

Outcomes

Yes Lead

Mid 94.25¢·Bid 0.94·Ask 0.95

Mid 5.75¢·Bid 0.05·Ask 0.06

Price (MID)Entropy0·DatahighCtrl or ⌘ + scroll to pan/zoom

Real-time mid prices from Polymarket CLOB

Updating…

Yes

Signals on this market

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Top traders

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Context

Description

This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.

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Resolution criteria

Event

OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap

Resolve: —
Trades 24h: —

Advanced data

Market metrics (raw)

{
  "p_normalized": [
    0.9425,
    0.057499999999999996
  ],
  "activity": {
    "trades_24h": null,
    "volume_7d_usd": 51858.16786099999,
    "volume_24h_usd": 18875.522408999997,
    "open_interest_usd": 71235.04987
  },
  "leader_outcome_id": 0
}

Depth / impact

Yes

100 {"buy":10943.043310000001,"sell":435.12531}
200 {"buy":28263.0432,"sell":8734.25179}
500 {"buy":111524.07438000002,"sell":62973.55089}

100 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
200 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
500 {"buy":0,"sell":0}

Order books

Outcome 0

Bids (top 5)

{"size":70.01,"price":0.937}
{"size":213,"price":0.935}
{"size":182.41,"price":0.934}
{"size":741,"price":0.933}
{"size":3331.08,"price":0.932}

Asks (top 5)

{"size":4010.66,"price":0.948}
{"size":5000,"price":0.95}
{"size":2514.13,"price":0.951}
{"size":420,"price":0.952}
{"size":1100,"price":0.953}

Outcome 1

Bids (top 5)

{"size":4010.66,"price":0.052}
{"size":5000,"price":0.05}
{"size":2514.13,"price":0.049}
{"size":420,"price":0.048}
{"size":1100,"price":0.047}

Asks (top 5)

{"size":70.01,"price":0.063}
{"size":213,"price":0.065}
{"size":182.41,"price":0.066}
{"size":741,"price":0.067}
{"size":3331.08,"price":0.068}