Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

OPENBinary · Closes 1/1/2027, 12:59:00 PM

BUSINESSFINANCEFEDFED RATESECONOMYECONOMIC POLICYREWARDS 200, 4.5, 50 DEPRECKEVIN WARSH

Open on Polymarket ↗

Score

Good

24h vol

$29,202

7d vol

$278,810

Open int.

$459,412

Activity

44 traders · 45 signals · updated 15 min. ago

Score breakdown

11 min. ago

Liquidity1

Spread1

Tradability1

Time left1

Execution notes

No major liquidity or timing warnings.

OPEN_AND_TWO_SIDEDSPREAD_OKDEPTH_STRONGPLENTY_OF_TIMEDATA_QUALITY_HIGH

Outcomes

Yes Lead

Mid 96.9¢·Bid 0.97·Ask 0.97

Mid 3.1¢·Bid 0.03·Ask 0.03

Price (MID)Entropy0·DatahighCtrl or ⌘ + scroll to pan/zoom

Real-time mid prices from Polymarket CLOB

Updating…

Yes

Signals on this market

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Top traders

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Context

Description

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

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Resolution criteria

https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm

Resolution source

https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm

Event

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

Resolve: —
Trades 24h: —

Advanced data

Market metrics (raw)

{
  "p_normalized": [
    0.969,
    0.031
  ],
  "activity": {
    "trades_24h": null,
    "volume_7d_usd": 278810.086766,
    "volume_24h_usd": 29202.10832200001,
    "open_interest_usd": 459411.71616
  },
  "leader_outcome_id": 0
}

Depth / impact

Yes

100 {"buy":6450.38868,"sell":8503.149599999999}
200 {"buy":27400.359299999996,"sell":157918.95561}
500 {"buy":5560975.56026,"sell":415949.42938999995}

100 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
200 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
500 {"buy":0,"sell":0}

Order books

Outcome 0

Bids (top 5)

{"size":180.49,"price":0.966}
{"size":500,"price":0.965}
{"size":500,"price":0.964}
{"size":777.7,"price":0.963}
{"size":2736.98,"price":0.962}

Asks (top 5)

{"size":619.96,"price":0.972}
{"size":330,"price":0.974}
{"size":237,"price":0.975}
{"size":4817.5,"price":0.976}
{"size":507.28,"price":0.977}

Outcome 1

Bids (top 5)

{"size":619.96,"price":0.028}
{"size":330,"price":0.026}
{"size":237,"price":0.025}
{"size":4817.5,"price":0.024}
{"size":507.28,"price":0.023}

Asks (top 5)

{"size":180.49,"price":0.034}
{"size":500,"price":0.035}
{"size":500,"price":0.036}
{"size":777.7,"price":0.037}
{"size":2736.98,"price":0.038}