Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

OPENBinary · Closes 1/1/2027, 1:00:00 AM

POLITICSIRANMIDDLE EASTGEOPOLITICSWORLDREWARDS 50, 4.5, 100 DEPRECIRAN REGIME
Open on Polymarket ↗

Score

92

Good

24h vol

$12,034

7d vol

$101,151

Open int.

$42,346

Activity

45 traders · 45 signals · updated 5 min. ago

Score breakdown

36 min. ago
Liquidity1
Spread1
Tradability1
Time left1

Execution notes

  • DEPTH_MODERATE
OPEN_AND_TWO_SIDEDSPREAD_OKPLENTY_OF_TIMEDATA_QUALITY_HIGH

Outcomes

Yes Lead

Mid 85.65¢·Bid 0.85·Ask 0.86

No

Mid 14.35¢·Bid 0.14·Ask 0.15

Price (MID)Entropy0·Datahigh

Real-time mid prices from Polymarket CLOB

Updating…
Yes
No

Signals on this market

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Top traders

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Context

Description

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.

Resolution source

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.

Event

Iran leader end of 2026?

Resolve
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Trades 24h
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Advanced data

Market metrics (raw)

{
  "p_normalized": [
    0.8565,
    0.1435
  ],
  "activity": {
    "trades_24h": null,
    "volume_7d_usd": 101150.65993200001,
    "volume_24h_usd": 12033.853664,
    "open_interest_usd": 42345.54831
  },
  "leader_outcome_id": 0
}

Depth / impact

Yes

  • 100 {"buy":13812.28709,"sell":471.07494}
  • 200 {"buy":19371.297880000002,"sell":3109.17894}
  • 500 {"buy":24824.687880000005,"sell":6908.693429999999}
  • —

No

  • 100 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
  • 200 {"buy":80.53506,"sell":24.588989999999995}
  • 500 {"buy":80.53506,"sell":2223.52291}
  • —

Order books

Outcome 0

Bids (top 5)

  • {"size":551.61,"price":0.854}
  • {"size":712,"price":0.847}
  • {"size":200,"price":0.845}
  • {"size":120,"price":0.842}
  • {"size":1000,"price":0.841}

Asks (top 5)

  • {"size":174.39,"price":0.859}
  • {"size":5028.98,"price":0.86}
  • {"size":10832.44,"price":0.862}
  • {"size":5218.64,"price":0.868}
  • {"size":300,"price":0.87}

Outcome 1

Bids (top 5)

  • {"size":174.39,"price":0.141}
  • {"size":5028.98,"price":0.14}
  • {"size":10832.44,"price":0.138}
  • {"size":5218.64,"price":0.132}
  • {"size":300,"price":0.13}

Asks (top 5)

  • {"size":551.61,"price":0.146}
  • {"size":712,"price":0.153}
  • {"size":200,"price":0.155}
  • {"size":120,"price":0.158}
  • {"size":1000,"price":0.159}