Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026?

OPENBinary · Closes 1/1/2027, 12:59:00 PM

IRANSAUDI ARABIAYEMENGEOPOLITICSMBSOPEC

Open on Polymarket ↗

Score

100

Good

24h vol

$11,455

7d vol

$36,477

Open int.

$67,724

Activity

—

Score breakdown

31 min. ago

Liquidity1

Spread1

Tradability1

Time left1

Execution notes

No major liquidity or timing warnings.

OPEN_AND_TWO_SIDEDSPREAD_TIGHTDEPTH_STRONGPLENTY_OF_TIMEDATA_QUALITY_HIGH

Outcomes

Yes

Mid 6.5¢·Bid 0.06·Ask 0.07

No Lead

Mid 93.5¢·Bid 0.93·Ask 0.94

Price (MID)Entropy0·DatahighCtrl or ⌘ + scroll to pan/zoom

Real-time mid prices from Polymarket CLOB

Updating…

Yes

Signals on this market

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Top traders

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Context

Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia Mohammed bin Salman ceases to be leader of Saudi Arabia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Mohammed bin Salman's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Mohammed bin Salman and the government of Saudi Arabia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Resolution criteria

Resolution source

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Mohammed bin Salman and the government of Saudi Arabia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event

Mohammed bin Salman out as leader of Saudi Arabia by...?

Resolve: —
Trades 24h: —

Advanced data

Market metrics (raw)

{
  "p_normalized": [
    0.065,
    0.935
  ],
  "activity": {
    "trades_24h": null,
    "volume_7d_usd": 36477.091721,
    "volume_24h_usd": 11454.565951999999,
    "open_interest_usd": 67724.31919
  },
  "leader_outcome_id": 1
}

Depth / impact

Yes

100 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
200 {"buy":26.328060000000004,"sell":37.65696}
500 {"buy":30.821770000000004,"sell":400.78678}

100 {"buy":21481.661070000002,"sell":4281.506380000001}
200 {"buy":40020.49087,"sell":8526.133070000002}
500 {"buy":127225.79276000001,"sell":10711.229440000001}

Order books

Outcome 1

Bids (top 5)

{"size":398.91,"price":0.934}
{"size":5.17,"price":0.933}
{"size":60.99,"price":0.932}
{"size":471,"price":0.93}
{"size":1329.05,"price":0.929}

Asks (top 5)

{"size":588.39,"price":0.936}
{"size":1111.82,"price":0.937}
{"size":4727.18,"price":0.938}
{"size":1863.61,"price":0.939}
{"size":11396.49,"price":0.94}

Outcome 0

Bids (top 5)

{"size":588.39,"price":0.064}
{"size":1111.82,"price":0.063}
{"size":4727.18,"price":0.062}
{"size":1863.61,"price":0.061}
{"size":11396.49,"price":0.06}

Asks (top 5)

{"size":398.91,"price":0.066}
{"size":5.17,"price":0.067}
{"size":60.99,"price":0.068}
{"size":471,"price":0.07}
{"size":1329.05,"price":0.071}