Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?

Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?

OPENBinary · Closes 1/4/2027, 12:59:00 PM

POLITICSCONGRESSSENATE
Open on Polymarket ↗

Score

90

Good

24h vol

$3,081

7d vol

$52,723

Open int.

$50,609

Activity

13 traders · 13 signals · updated 39 min. ago

Score breakdown

1 hr. ago
Liquidity1
Spread1
Tradability1
Time left1

Execution notes

No major liquidity or timing warnings.

OPEN_AND_TWO_SIDEDSPREAD_OKDEPTH_STRONGPLENTY_OF_TIMEDATA_QUALITY_HIGH

Outcomes

Yes

Mid 4.5¢·Bid 0.04·Ask 0.05

No Lead

Mid 95.5¢·Bid 0.95·Ask 0.96

Price (MID)Entropy0·Datahigh

Real-time mid prices from Polymarket CLOB

Updating…
Yes
No

Signals on this market

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Top traders

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Context

Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Mitch McConnell formally announces an intention to step down or otherwise vacates his U.S. Senate seat before his current term is scheduled to end (January 3, 2027, 11:59 PM ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” An announcement will qualify only if it indicates that McConnell will leave office prior to the scheduled end of his term. Statements reaffirming an existing plan to retire at the end of his term will not qualify. The primary resolution sources will be official statements from Mitch McConnell, his office or representatives, and/or official communications from the U.S. Senate or government.

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Mitch McConnell formally announces an intention to step down or otherwise vacates his U.S. Senate seat before his current term is scheduled to end (January 3, 2027, 11:59 PM ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” An announcement will qualify only if it indicates that McConnell will leave office prior to the scheduled end of his term. Statements reaffirming an existing plan to retire at the end of his term will not qualify. The primary resolution sources will be official statements from Mitch McConnell, his office or representatives, and/or official communications from the U.S. Senate or government.

Resolution source

The primary resolution sources will be official statements from Mitch McConnell, his office or representatives, and/or official communications from the U.S. Senate or government.

Event

Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?

Resolve
—
Trades 24h
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Advanced data

Market metrics (raw)

{
  "p_normalized": [
    0.045,
    0.955
  ],
  "activity": {
    "trades_24h": null,
    "volume_7d_usd": 52722.658725,
    "volume_24h_usd": 3080.8634669999997,
    "open_interest_usd": 50609.3722
  },
  "leader_outcome_id": 1
}

Depth / impact

Yes

  • 100 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
  • 200 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
  • 500 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
  • —

No

  • 100 {"buy":3662.8127999999997,"sell":852.2829999999999}
  • 200 {"buy":16501.3545,"sell":11534.687399999999}
  • 500 {"buy":294299.60659999994,"sell":18825.030199999997}
  • —

Order books

Outcome 1

Bids (top 5)

  • {"size":897.14,"price":0.95}
  • {"size":11364.26,"price":0.94}
  • {"size":6248.48,"price":0.93}
  • {"size":1058.92,"price":0.92}
  • {"size":555,"price":0.91}

Asks (top 5)

  • {"size":3815.43,"price":0.96}
  • {"size":13235.61,"price":0.97}
  • {"size":145616.62,"price":0.98}
  • {"size":136458.55,"price":0.99}

Outcome 0

Bids (top 5)

  • {"size":3815.43,"price":0.04}
  • {"size":13235.61,"price":0.03}
  • {"size":145616.62,"price":0.02}
  • {"size":136458.55,"price":0.01}

Asks (top 5)

  • {"size":897.14,"price":0.05}
  • {"size":11364.26,"price":0.06}
  • {"size":6248.48,"price":0.07}
  • {"size":1058.92,"price":0.08}
  • {"size":555,"price":0.09}