Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?

Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?

OPENBinary · Closes 4/19/2027, 11:59:00 AM

POLITICSELECTIONSFRANCEGLOBAL ELECTIONSFRENCH ELECTIONWORLD ELECTIONSWORLDFRENCH ELECTIONSMAIN ELECTION
Open on Polymarket ↗

Score

92

Good

24h vol

$83,294

7d vol

$396,242

Open int.

$555,285

Activity

37 traders · 37 signals · updated 8 min. ago

Score breakdown

11 min. ago
Liquidity1
Spread1
Tradability1
Time left1

Execution notes

  • DEPTH_MODERATE
OPEN_AND_TWO_SIDEDSPREAD_TIGHTPLENTY_OF_TIMEDATA_QUALITY_HIGH

Outcomes

Yes

Mid 41.15¢·Bid 0.41·Ask 0.41

No Lead

Mid 58.85¢·Bid 0.59·Ask 0.59

Price (MID)Entropy1·Datahigh

Real-time mid prices from Polymarket CLOB

Updating…
Yes
No

Signals on this market

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Top traders

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Context

Description

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).

Resolution criteria

https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/

Resolution source

https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/

Event

Next French Presidential Election

Resolve
—
Trades 24h
—
Advanced data

Market metrics (raw)

{
  "p_normalized": [
    0.4115,
    0.5885
  ],
  "activity": {
    "trades_24h": null,
    "volume_7d_usd": 396241.632237,
    "volume_24h_usd": 83293.99851900002,
    "open_interest_usd": 555285.25459
  },
  "leader_outcome_id": 1
}

Depth / impact

Yes

  • 100 {"buy":2067.6478399999996,"sell":1748.3931999999998}
  • 200 {"buy":2961.4888399999995,"sell":7343.34415}
  • 500 {"buy":8690.741160000001,"sell":83083.97671}
  • —

No

  • 100 {"buy":2513.5268,"sell":3650.2721599999995}
  • 200 {"buy":13170.221059999998,"sell":6971.08116}
  • 500 {"buy":187361.7169,"sell":14448.13808}
  • —

Order books

Outcome 0

Bids (top 5)

  • {"size":1533.96,"price":0.411}
  • {"size":2200,"price":0.41}
  • {"size":527.96,"price":0.409}
  • {"size":2079.99,"price":0.405}
  • {"size":11763.75,"price":0.404}

Asks (top 5)

  • {"size":4918.32,"price":0.412}
  • {"size":100,"price":0.413}
  • {"size":1200,"price":0.417}
  • {"size":939,"price":0.419}
  • {"size":2200,"price":0.42}

Outcome 1

Bids (top 5)

  • {"size":4918.32,"price":0.588}
  • {"size":100,"price":0.587}
  • {"size":1200,"price":0.583}
  • {"size":939,"price":0.581}
  • {"size":2200,"price":0.58}

Asks (top 5)

  • {"size":1533.96,"price":0.589}
  • {"size":2200,"price":0.59}
  • {"size":527.96,"price":0.591}
  • {"size":2079.99,"price":0.595}
  • {"size":11763.75,"price":0.596}