Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?

Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?

OPENBinary · Closes 1/1/2027, 12:59:00 PM

POLITICSIRANMIDDLE EASTNUCLEARGEOPOLITICS
Open on Polymarket ↗

Score

90

Good

24h vol

$4,510

7d vol

$29,228

Open int.

$38,899

Activity

6 traders · 6 signals · updated 48 sec. ago

Score breakdown

1 hr. ago
Liquidity1
Spread1
Tradability1
Time left1

Execution notes

  • DEPTH_MODERATE
OPEN_AND_TWO_SIDEDSPREAD_OKPLENTY_OF_TIMEDATA_QUALITY_HIGH

Outcomes

Yes

Mid 7.15¢·Bid 0.07·Ask 0.07

No Lead

Mid 92.85¢·Bid 0.93·Ask 0.93

Price (MID)Entropy0·Datahigh

Real-time mid prices from Polymarket CLOB

Updating…
Yes
No

Signals on this market

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Top traders

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Context

Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT. The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT. The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Resolution source

The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Event

Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?

Resolve
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Trades 24h
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Advanced data

Market metrics (raw)

{
  "p_normalized": [
    0.07150000000000001,
    0.9285000000000001
  ],
  "activity": {
    "trades_24h": null,
    "volume_7d_usd": 29227.9178,
    "volume_24h_usd": 4510.11956,
    "open_interest_usd": 38899.47954
  },
  "leader_outcome_id": 1
}

Depth / impact

Yes

  • 100 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
  • 200 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
  • 500 {"buy":9.17896,"sell":1.725}
  • —

No

  • 100 {"buy":223.77,"sell":114.86104000000002}
  • 200 {"buy":7567.19806,"sell":9765.48366}
  • 500 {"buy":20987.53053,"sell":20205.661679999997}
  • —

Order books

Outcome 0

Bids (top 5)

  • {"size":25,"price":0.069}
  • {"size":23,"price":0.064}
  • {"size":191,"price":0.063}
  • {"size":236.07,"price":0.062}
  • {"size":1383.21,"price":0.061}

Asks (top 5)

  • {"size":124.04,"price":0.074}
  • {"size":145,"price":0.083}
  • {"size":218,"price":0.084}
  • {"size":2123.02,"price":0.085}
  • {"size":693.88,"price":0.086}

Outcome 1

Bids (top 5)

  • {"size":124.04,"price":0.926}
  • {"size":145,"price":0.917}
  • {"size":218,"price":0.916}
  • {"size":2123.02,"price":0.915}
  • {"size":693.88,"price":0.914}

Asks (top 5)

  • {"size":25,"price":0.931}
  • {"size":23,"price":0.936}
  • {"size":191,"price":0.937}
  • {"size":236.07,"price":0.938}
  • {"size":1383.21,"price":0.939}