Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?

Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?

OPENBinary · Closes 1/1/2027, 12:59:00 PM

POLITICSGAZAISRAELGEOPOLITICSFOREIGN POLICYGLOBAL
Open on Polymarket ↗

Score

91

Good

24h vol

$1,249

7d vol

$13,082

Open int.

$58,285

Activity

15 traders · 15 signals · updated 21 min. ago

Score breakdown

25 min. ago
Liquidity1
Spread1
Tradability1
Time left1

Execution notes

No major liquidity or timing warnings.

OPEN_AND_TWO_SIDEDSPREAD_OKDEPTH_STRONGPLENTY_OF_TIMEDATA_QUALITY_HIGH

Outcomes

Yes

Mid 4.5¢·Bid 0.04·Ask 0.05

No Lead

Mid 95.5¢·Bid 0.95·Ask 0.96

Price (MID)Entropy0·Datahigh

Real-time mid prices from Polymarket CLOB

Updating…
Yes
No

Signals on this market

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Top traders

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Context

Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only credible announcements, for example by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas, will qualify. For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip. Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process. Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered. Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hamas leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only credible announcements, for example by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas, will qualify. For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip. Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process. Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered. Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hamas leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.

Resolution source

Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hamas leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.

Event

Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?

Resolve
—
Trades 24h
—
Advanced data

Market metrics (raw)

{
  "p_normalized": [
    0.045,
    0.955
  ],
  "activity": {
    "trades_24h": null,
    "volume_7d_usd": 13081.807872999998,
    "volume_24h_usd": 1249.43,
    "open_interest_usd": 58284.5882
  },
  "leader_outcome_id": 1
}

Depth / impact

Yes

  • 100 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
  • 200 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
  • 500 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
  • —

No

  • 100 {"buy":262.33919999999995,"sell":17598.1135}
  • 200 {"buy":3156.3439,"sell":27257.0835}
  • 500 {"buy":18721.4982,"sell":32725.2436}
  • —

Order books

Outcome 1

Bids (top 5)

  • {"size":18524.33,"price":0.95}
  • {"size":10275.5,"price":0.94}
  • {"size":4791.57,"price":0.93}
  • {"size":1100,"price":0.92}
  • {"size":686,"price":0.9}

Asks (top 5)

  • {"size":273.27,"price":0.96}
  • {"size":2983.51,"price":0.97}
  • {"size":1933.66,"price":0.98}
  • {"size":13808.25,"price":0.99}

Outcome 0

Bids (top 5)

  • {"size":273.27,"price":0.04}
  • {"size":2983.51,"price":0.03}
  • {"size":1933.66,"price":0.02}
  • {"size":13808.25,"price":0.01}

Asks (top 5)

  • {"size":18524.33,"price":0.05}
  • {"size":10275.5,"price":0.06}
  • {"size":4791.57,"price":0.07}
  • {"size":1100,"price":0.08}
  • {"size":686,"price":0.1}