Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

OPENBinary · Closes 11/8/2028, 12:59:00 PM

POLITICSELECTIONSUNITED STATESUS ELECTIONGLOBAL ELECTIONSWORLD ELECTIONSEARN 3.25%PRESIDENTMAIN ELECTION
Open on Polymarket ↗

Score

92

Good

24h vol

$14,199

7d vol

$210,767

Open int.

$313,968

Activity

40 traders · 47 signals · updated 17 min. ago

Score breakdown

10 min. ago
Liquidity1
Spread1
Tradability1
Time left1

Execution notes

No major liquidity or timing warnings.

OPEN_AND_TWO_SIDEDSPREAD_OKDEPTH_STRONGPLENTY_OF_TIMEDATA_QUALITY_HIGH

Outcomes

Yes

Mid 12¢·Bid 0.12·Ask 0.12

No Lead

Mid 88¢·Bid 0.88·Ask 0.88

Price (MID)Entropy0·Datahigh

Real-time mid prices from Polymarket CLOB

Updating…
Yes
No

Signals on this market

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Top traders

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Context

Description

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

Resolution criteria

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

Resolution source

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

Event

Presidential Election Winner 2028

Resolve
—
Trades 24h
—
Advanced data

Market metrics (raw)

{
  "p_normalized": [
    0.12,
    0.88
  ],
  "activity": {
    "trades_24h": null,
    "volume_7d_usd": 210766.587815,
    "volume_24h_usd": 14199.446366999999,
    "open_interest_usd": 313968.32575
  },
  "leader_outcome_id": 1
}

Depth / impact

Yes

  • 100 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
  • 200 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
  • 500 {"buy":1152.41092,"sell":40.825}
  • —

No

  • 100 {"buy":314.175,"sell":8453.73244}
  • 200 {"buy":2538.44654,"sell":27770.682749999996}
  • 500 {"buy":38399.98486,"sell":58421.35071999999}
  • —

Order books

Outcome 1

Bids (top 5)

  • {"size":267.87,"price":0.876}
  • {"size":5,"price":0.875}
  • {"size":8877.54,"price":0.874}
  • {"size":522.63,"price":0.872}
  • {"size":10028.69,"price":0.871}

Asks (top 5)

  • {"size":50,"price":0.884}
  • {"size":255,"price":0.885}
  • {"size":50,"price":0.886}
  • {"size":154,"price":0.889}
  • {"size":400,"price":0.89}

Outcome 0

Bids (top 5)

  • {"size":50,"price":0.116}
  • {"size":255,"price":0.115}
  • {"size":50,"price":0.114}
  • {"size":154,"price":0.111}
  • {"size":400,"price":0.11}

Asks (top 5)

  • {"size":267.87,"price":0.124}
  • {"size":5,"price":0.125}
  • {"size":8877.54,"price":0.126}
  • {"size":522.63,"price":0.128}
  • {"size":10028.69,"price":0.129}