Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?

Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?

OPENBinary · Closes 11/4/2026, 12:59:00 PM

POLITICSELECTIONSUNITED STATESUS ELECTIONGLOBAL ELECTIONSMIDTERMSALASKA MIDTERMSENATE ELECTIONSTOSSUP SENATE RACESSENATE MIDTERM WINNERSTOSSUPSALASKA SENATE
Open on Polymarket ↗

Score

92

Good

24h vol

$94,269

7d vol

$290,085

Open int.

$528,863

Activity

15 traders · 16 signals · updated 44 min. ago

Score breakdown

51 min. ago
Liquidity1
Spread1
Tradability1
Time left1

Execution notes

No major liquidity or timing warnings.

OPEN_AND_TWO_SIDEDSPREAD_OKDEPTH_STRONGPLENTY_OF_TIMEDATA_QUALITY_HIGH

Outcomes

Yes

Mid 29.5¢·Bid 0.29·Ask 0.3

No Lead

Mid 70.5¢·Bid 0.7·Ask 0.71

Price (MID)Entropy1·Datahigh

Real-time mid prices from Polymarket CLOB

Updating…
Yes
No

Signals on this market

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Top traders

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Context

Description

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Alaska U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Alaska U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.

Resolution source

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.

Event

Alaska Senate Election Winner

Resolve
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Trades 24h
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Advanced data

Market metrics (raw)

{
  "p_normalized": [
    0.295,
    0.705
  ],
  "activity": {
    "trades_24h": null,
    "volume_7d_usd": 290085.226744,
    "volume_24h_usd": 94269.15208199999,
    "open_interest_usd": 528863.1847
  },
  "leader_outcome_id": 1
}

Depth / impact

Yes

  • 100 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
  • 200 {"buy":39258.858,"sell":25.798399999999997}
  • 500 {"buy":39258.858,"sell":25.798399999999997}
  • —

No

  • 100 {"buy":63.16159999999999,"sell":91604.002}
  • 200 {"buy":63.16159999999999,"sell":91604.002}
  • 500 {"buy":135957.3689,"sell":240720.24550000002}
  • —

Order books

Outcome 0

Bids (top 5)

  • {"size":88.96,"price":0.29}
  • {"size":11195.76,"price":0.28}
  • {"size":135282.45,"price":0.27}
  • {"size":39293.34,"price":0.26}
  • {"size":409775.47,"price":0.25}

Asks (top 5)

  • {"size":130862.86,"price":0.3}
  • {"size":62576.43,"price":0.31}
  • {"size":136054.51,"price":0.32}
  • {"size":20032,"price":0.33}
  • {"size":3522,"price":0.34}

Outcome 1

Bids (top 5)

  • {"size":130862.86,"price":0.7}
  • {"size":62576.43,"price":0.69}
  • {"size":136054.51,"price":0.68}
  • {"size":20032,"price":0.67}
  • {"size":3522,"price":0.66}

Asks (top 5)

  • {"size":88.96,"price":0.71}
  • {"size":11195.76,"price":0.72}
  • {"size":135282.45,"price":0.73}
  • {"size":39293.34,"price":0.74}
  • {"size":409775.47,"price":0.75}