Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?

Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?

OPENBinary · Closes 7/1/2027, 11:59:00 AM

POLITICSCHINATAIWANGEOPOLITICS
Open on Polymarket ↗

Score

91

Good

24h vol

$228

7d vol

$4,603

Open int.

$78,794

Activity

5 traders · 5 signals · updated 3 min. ago

Score breakdown

8 min. ago
Liquidity1
Spread1
Tradability1
Time left1

Execution notes

No major liquidity or timing warnings.

OPEN_AND_TWO_SIDEDSPREAD_OKDEPTH_STRONGPLENTY_OF_TIMEDATA_QUALITY_HIGH

Outcomes

Yes

Mid 5.5¢·Bid 0.05·Ask 0.06

No Lead

Mid 94.5¢·Bid 0.94·Ask 0.95

Price (MID)Entropy0·Datahigh

Real-time mid prices from Polymarket CLOB

Updating…
Yes
No

Signals on this market

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Top traders

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Context

Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Resolution source

The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Event

Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?

Resolve
—
Trades 24h
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Advanced data

Market metrics (raw)

{
  "p_normalized": [
    0.055,
    0.945
  ],
  "activity": {
    "trades_24h": null,
    "volume_7d_usd": 4602.554881,
    "volume_24h_usd": 228.173158,
    "open_interest_usd": 78794.3969
  },
  "leader_outcome_id": 1
}

Depth / impact

Yes

  • 100 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
  • 200 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
  • 500 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
  • —

No

  • 100 {"buy":2687.778,"sell":9723.500999999998}
  • 200 {"buy":12776.7156,"sell":19191.356699999997}
  • 500 {"buy":163862.65360000002,"sell":30607.775999999998}
  • —

Order books

Outcome 0

Bids (top 5)

  • {"size":2829.24,"price":0.05}
  • {"size":10509.31,"price":0.04}
  • {"size":18812.8,"price":0.03}
  • {"size":7459.14,"price":0.02}
  • {"size":126795.52,"price":0.01}

Asks (top 5)

  • {"size":10344.15,"price":0.06}
  • {"size":10180.49,"price":0.07}
  • {"size":10447.47,"price":0.08}
  • {"size":320.79,"price":0.09}
  • {"size":1680.92,"price":0.1}

Outcome 1

Bids (top 5)

  • {"size":10344.15,"price":0.94}
  • {"size":10180.49,"price":0.93}
  • {"size":10447.47,"price":0.92}
  • {"size":320.79,"price":0.91}
  • {"size":1680.92,"price":0.9}

Asks (top 5)

  • {"size":2829.24,"price":0.95}
  • {"size":10509.31,"price":0.96}
  • {"size":18812.8,"price":0.97}
  • {"size":7459.14,"price":0.98}
  • {"size":126795.52,"price":0.99}