Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

OPENBinary · Closes 1/1/2028, 12:59:00 PM

POLITICSCHINAGEOPOLITICSWORLD
Open on Polymarket ↗

Score

95

Good

24h vol

$6,899

7d vol

$26,523

Open int.

$193,471

Activity

31 traders · 33 signals · updated 2 min. ago

Score breakdown

24 min. ago
Liquidity1
Spread1
Tradability1
Time left1

Execution notes

No major liquidity or timing warnings.

OPEN_AND_TWO_SIDEDSPREAD_OKDEPTH_STRONGPLENTY_OF_TIMEDATA_QUALITY_HIGH

Outcomes

Yes

Mid 9.5¢·Bid 0.09·Ask 0.1

No Lead

Mid 90.5¢·Bid 0.9·Ask 0.91

Price (MID)Entropy0·Datahigh

Real-time mid prices from Polymarket CLOB

Updating…
Yes
No

Signals on this market

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Top traders

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Context

Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Resolution source

The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Event

Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

Resolve
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Trades 24h
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Advanced data

Market metrics (raw)

{
  "p_normalized": [
    0.095,
    0.905
  ],
  "activity": {
    "trades_24h": null,
    "volume_7d_usd": 26522.705684999997,
    "volume_24h_usd": 6899.009876,
    "open_interest_usd": 193470.5965
  },
  "leader_outcome_id": 1
}

Depth / impact

Yes

  • 100 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
  • 200 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
  • 500 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
  • —

No

  • 100 {"buy":22253.6496,"sell":24488.397}
  • 200 {"buy":35948.19,"sell":32181.8952}
  • 500 {"buy":102774.9133,"sell":69278.5953}
  • —

Order books

Outcome 1

Bids (top 5)

  • {"size":27209.33,"price":0.9}
  • {"size":8644.38,"price":0.89}
  • {"size":10731.83,"price":0.88}
  • {"size":27671.39,"price":0.87}
  • {"size":4161.14,"price":0.86}

Asks (top 5)

  • {"size":24454.56,"price":0.91}
  • {"size":14885.37,"price":0.92}
  • {"size":22010.7,"price":0.93}
  • {"size":22862.47,"price":0.94}
  • {"size":26174.79,"price":0.95}

Outcome 0

Bids (top 5)

  • {"size":24454.56,"price":0.09}
  • {"size":14885.37,"price":0.08}
  • {"size":22010.7,"price":0.07}
  • {"size":22862.47,"price":0.06}
  • {"size":26174.79,"price":0.05}

Asks (top 5)

  • {"size":27209.33,"price":0.1}
  • {"size":8644.38,"price":0.11}
  • {"size":10731.83,"price":0.12}
  • {"size":27671.39,"price":0.13}
  • {"size":4161.14,"price":0.14}