Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

OPENBinary · Closes 1/1/2027, 12:59:00 PM

POLITICSCHINAGEOPOLITICSFOREIGN POLICYWORLDEARN 3.25%
Open on Polymarket ↗

Score

100

Good

24h vol

$133,800

7d vol

$703,446

Open int.

$329,784

Activity

101 traders · 103 signals · updated 5 min. ago

Score breakdown

15 min. ago
Liquidity1
Spread1
Tradability1
Time left1

Execution notes

No major liquidity or timing warnings.

OPEN_AND_TWO_SIDEDSPREAD_TIGHTDEPTH_STRONGPLENTY_OF_TIMEDATA_QUALITY_HIGH

Outcomes

Yes

Mid 2.05¢·Bid 0.02·Ask 0.02

No Lead

Mid 97.95¢·Bid 0.98·Ask 0.98

Price (MID)Entropy0·Datahigh

Real-time mid prices from Polymarket CLOB

Updating…
Yes
No

Signals on this market

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Top traders

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Context

Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Resolution source

The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Event

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Resolve
—
Trades 24h
—
Advanced data

Market metrics (raw)

{
  "p_normalized": [
    0.0205,
    0.9795
  ],
  "activity": {
    "trades_24h": null,
    "volume_7d_usd": 703445.9992280001,
    "volume_24h_usd": 133799.88960199998,
    "open_interest_usd": 329783.69342
  },
  "leader_outcome_id": 1
}

Depth / impact

Yes

  • 100 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
  • 200 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
  • 500 {"buy":25.75608,"sell":45.290200000000006}
  • —

No

  • 100 {"buy":341297.88877,"sell":113951.72494}
  • 200 {"buy":5328954.05232,"sell":187773.6912}
  • 500 {"buy":5328954.05232,"sell":196996.22330999994}
  • —

Order books

Outcome 1

Bids (top 5)

  • {"size":1226.48,"price":0.979}
  • {"size":2347.47,"price":0.978}
  • {"size":35664.76,"price":0.977}
  • {"size":5955.51,"price":0.976}
  • {"size":2780.47,"price":0.975}

Asks (top 5)

  • {"size":2264.51,"price":0.98}
  • {"size":4928.61,"price":0.981}
  • {"size":14096.48,"price":0.982}
  • {"size":62194.68,"price":0.983}
  • {"size":24721.21,"price":0.984}

Outcome 0

Bids (top 5)

  • {"size":2264.51,"price":0.02}
  • {"size":4928.61,"price":0.019}
  • {"size":14096.48,"price":0.018}
  • {"size":62194.68,"price":0.017}
  • {"size":24721.21,"price":0.016}

Asks (top 5)

  • {"size":1226.48,"price":0.021}
  • {"size":2347.47,"price":0.022}
  • {"size":35664.76,"price":0.023}
  • {"size":5955.51,"price":0.024}
  • {"size":2780.47,"price":0.025}