Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?

Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?

OPENBinary · Closes 1/1/2027, 12:59:00 PM

CHINATAIWANGEOPOLITICSHFC
Open on Polymarket ↗

Score

100

Good

24h vol

$287

7d vol

$513

Open int.

$60,030

Activity

11 traders · 11 signals · updated 11 min. ago

Score breakdown

52 min. ago
Liquidity1
Spread1
Tradability1
Time left1

Execution notes

No major liquidity or timing warnings.

OPEN_AND_TWO_SIDEDSPREAD_TIGHTDEPTH_STRONGPLENTY_OF_TIMEDATA_QUALITY_HIGH

Outcomes

Yes

Mid 2.3¢·Bid 0.02·Ask 0.02

No Lead

Mid 97.7¢·Bid 0.98·Ask 0.98

Price (MID)Entropy0·Datahigh

Real-time mid prices from Polymarket CLOB

Updating…
Yes
No

Signals on this market

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Top traders

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Context

Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China (People's Republic of China) announces it has established or otherwise de facto establishes an aerial or naval blockade for the territory of Taiwan (Republic of China) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying blockade is: - Prevents the normal ingress or egress of foreign commercial traffic to or from Taiwan Island’s main ports or airports by threat or use of force for ≥ 24 hours. - Covers part or whole of the main island of Taiwan (Formosa). - Is declared and enforced, de facto (e.g., it is established that China is blocking a significant portion of foreign commercial traffic, as described above, by a wide consensus of credible reporting regardless of whether China has issued a statement or not), or China-issued navigation/airspace prohibitions covering Taiwan's main island's approach lanes that are actively enforced so that most foreign commercial access is denied. A qualifying blockade is not: - Military or naval exercises or drills (established with warning areas or NOTAMs that do not actively stop third-country ships/aircraft and do not materially deny access). - Purely economic or coercive measures (e.g., sanctions, customs delays, fishing bans, cyber/GPS jamming) without physical interdiction or enforced closure). - Weather/accident-related closures or voluntary rerouting by operators absent PRC enforcement. - Islet-only incidents that do not involve the main island of Taiwan. - Seizure or inspection of a single vessel/aircraft by itself, unless part of an enforced pattern that denies access as defined above. The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China (People's Republic of China) announces it has established or otherwise de facto establishes an aerial or naval blockade for the territory of Taiwan (Republic of China) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying blockade is: - Prevents the normal ingress or egress of foreign commercial traffic to or from Taiwan Island’s main ports or airports by threat or use of force for ≥ 24 hours. - Covers part or whole of the main island of Taiwan (Formosa). - Is declared and enforced, de facto (e.g., it is established that China is blocking a significant portion of foreign commercial traffic, as described above, by a wide consensus of credible reporting regardless of whether China has issued a statement or not), or China-issued navigation/airspace prohibitions covering Taiwan's main island's approach lanes that are actively enforced so that most foreign commercial access is denied. A qualifying blockade is not: - Military or naval exercises or drills (established with warning areas or NOTAMs that do not actively stop third-country ships/aircraft and do not materially deny access). - Purely economic or coercive measures (e.g., sanctions, customs delays, fishing bans, cyber/GPS jamming) without physical interdiction or enforced closure). - Weather/accident-related closures or voluntary rerouting by operators absent PRC enforcement. - Islet-only incidents that do not involve the main island of Taiwan. - Seizure or inspection of a single vessel/aircraft by itself, unless part of an enforced pattern that denies access as defined above. The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.

Resolution source

The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.

Event

Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?

Resolve
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Trades 24h
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Advanced data

Market metrics (raw)

{
  "p_normalized": [
    0.023,
    0.977
  ],
  "activity": {
    "trades_24h": null,
    "volume_7d_usd": 512.9443769999999,
    "volume_24h_usd": 287.41044999999997,
    "open_interest_usd": 60029.75037
  },
  "leader_outcome_id": 1
}

Depth / impact

Yes

  • 100 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
  • 200 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
  • 500 {"buy":1.55592,"sell":33.83864}
  • —

No

  • 100 {"buy":5605.608520000001,"sell":1542.8812000000003}
  • 200 {"buy":54390.41576999999,"sell":6899.2555}
  • 500 {"buy":364109.63158,"sell":18510.343099999995}
  • —

Order books

Outcome 1

Bids (top 5)

  • {"size":64.83,"price":0.976}
  • {"size":5.9,"price":0.974}
  • {"size":323.16,"price":0.973}
  • {"size":194,"price":0.971}
  • {"size":50,"price":0.97}

Asks (top 5)

  • {"size":1538.12,"price":0.978}
  • {"size":8.96,"price":0.979}
  • {"size":1614.12,"price":0.98}
  • {"size":50,"price":0.981}
  • {"size":50,"price":0.982}

Outcome 0

Bids (top 5)

  • {"size":1538.12,"price":0.022}
  • {"size":8.96,"price":0.021}
  • {"size":1614.12,"price":0.02}
  • {"size":50,"price":0.019}
  • {"size":50,"price":0.018}

Asks (top 5)

  • {"size":64.83,"price":0.024}
  • {"size":5.9,"price":0.026}
  • {"size":323.16,"price":0.027}
  • {"size":194,"price":0.029}
  • {"size":50,"price":0.03}