US strike on Mexico by December 31?

US strike on Mexico by December 31?

OPENBinary · Closes 1/1/2027, 12:59:00 PM

POLITICSTRUMPVENEZUELAGEOPOLITICSFOREIGN POLICYMEXICO CARTEL WARMENCHO
Open on Polymarket ↗

Score

92

Good

24h vol

$9

7d vol

$2,687

Open int.

$16,575

Activity

6 traders · 6 signals · updated 1 hr. ago

Score breakdown

1 min. ago
Liquidity1
Spread1
Tradability1
Time left1

Execution notes

  • DEPTH_MODERATE
OPEN_AND_TWO_SIDEDSPREAD_TIGHTPLENTY_OF_TIMEDATA_QUALITY_HIGH

Outcomes

Yes

Mid 2.9¢·Bid 0.03·Ask 0.03

No Lead

Mid 97.1¢·Bid 0.97·Ask 0.97

Price (MID)Entropy0·Datahigh

Real-time mid prices from Polymarket CLOB

Updating…
Yes
No

Signals on this market

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Top traders

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Context

Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Mexico is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify. Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Mexico is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify. Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.

Resolution source

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Event

US strike on Mexico by...?

Resolve
—
Trades 24h
—
Advanced data

Market metrics (raw)

{
  "p_normalized": [
    0.028999999999999998,
    0.971
  ],
  "activity": {
    "trades_24h": null,
    "volume_7d_usd": 2686.645162,
    "volume_24h_usd": 8.81,
    "open_interest_usd": 16574.7307
  },
  "leader_outcome_id": 1
}

Depth / impact

Yes

  • 100 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
  • 200 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
  • 500 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
  • —

No

  • 100 {"buy":2124.9893,"sell":817.94651}
  • 200 {"buy":20107.863980000002,"sell":1051.33046}
  • 500 {"buy":131192.71071,"sell":1511.14046}
  • —

Order books

Outcome 0

Bids (top 5)

  • {"size":209.6,"price":0.027}
  • {"size":136.69,"price":0.026}
  • {"size":290,"price":0.025}
  • {"size":404.44,"price":0.024}
  • {"size":10,"price":0.022}

Asks (top 5)

  • {"size":73.89,"price":0.031}
  • {"size":259,"price":0.032}
  • {"size":300,"price":0.034}
  • {"size":200,"price":0.036}
  • {"size":13.55,"price":0.038}

Outcome 1

Bids (top 5)

  • {"size":73.89,"price":0.969}
  • {"size":259,"price":0.968}
  • {"size":300,"price":0.966}
  • {"size":200,"price":0.964}
  • {"size":13.55,"price":0.962}

Asks (top 5)

  • {"size":209.6,"price":0.973}
  • {"size":136.69,"price":0.974}
  • {"size":290,"price":0.975}
  • {"size":404.44,"price":0.976}
  • {"size":10,"price":0.978}