US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?

OPENBinary · Closes 1/1/2027, 12:59:00 PM

POLITICSIRANTRUMPNEGOTIATION TOPICSNUCLEARGEOPOLITICSIRAN CEASEFIREU.S. X IRAN
Open on Polymarket ↗

Score

100

Good

24h vol

$19,373

7d vol

$89,048

Open int.

$113,363

Activity

21 traders · 22 signals · updated 1 hr. ago

Score breakdown

7 min. ago
Liquidity1
Spread1
Tradability1
Time left1

Execution notes

No major liquidity or timing warnings.

OPEN_AND_TWO_SIDEDSPREAD_TIGHTDEPTH_STRONGPLENTY_OF_TIMEDATA_QUALITY_HIGH

Outcomes

Yes

Mid 3.6¢·Bid 0.04·Ask 0.04

No Lead

Mid 96.4¢·Bid 0.96·Ask 0.97

Price (MID)Entropy0·Datahigh

Real-time mid prices from Polymarket CLOB

Updating…
Yes
No

Signals on this market

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Top traders

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Context

Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify. Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure. A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify. Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure. A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Resolution source

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?

Resolve
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Trades 24h
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Advanced data

Market metrics (raw)

{
  "p_normalized": [
    0.036000000000000004,
    0.964
  ],
  "activity": {
    "trades_24h": null,
    "volume_7d_usd": 89047.672548,
    "volume_24h_usd": 19372.516609000002,
    "open_interest_usd": 113362.90185
  },
  "leader_outcome_id": 1
}

Depth / impact

Yes

  • 100 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
  • 200 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
  • 500 {"buy":0.5553699999999999,"sell":35.132650000000005}
  • —

No

  • 100 {"buy":8227.00248,"sell":55504.32116000001}
  • 200 {"buy":43702.645639999995,"sell":56716.59864000001}
  • 500 {"buy":431659.17521,"sell":64559.39457000002}
  • —

Order books

Outcome 0

Bids (top 5)

  • {"size":1003.79,"price":0.035}
  • {"size":518.87,"price":0.034}
  • {"size":976,"price":0.033}
  • {"size":1438.21,"price":0.032}
  • {"size":983.97,"price":0.031}

Asks (top 5)

  • {"size":15.01,"price":0.037}
  • {"size":20291.9,"price":0.038}
  • {"size":1283.75,"price":0.039}
  • {"size":35283.36,"price":0.04}
  • {"size":274.91,"price":0.042}

Outcome 1

Bids (top 5)

  • {"size":15.01,"price":0.963}
  • {"size":20291.9,"price":0.962}
  • {"size":1283.75,"price":0.961}
  • {"size":35283.36,"price":0.96}
  • {"size":274.91,"price":0.958}

Asks (top 5)

  • {"size":1003.79,"price":0.965}
  • {"size":518.87,"price":0.966}
  • {"size":976,"price":0.967}
  • {"size":1438.21,"price":0.968}
  • {"size":983.97,"price":0.969}