US military draft authorized in 2026?

US military draft authorized in 2026?

OPENBinary · Closes 1/1/2027, 12:59:00 PM

POLITICSIRANTRUMPGEOPOLITICSU.S. X IRANSELECTIVE SERVICECONSCRIPT
Open on Polymarket ↗

Score

98

Good

24h vol

$112

7d vol

$2,366

Open int.

$32,779

Activity

6 traders · 6 signals · updated 3 min. ago

Score breakdown

27 min. ago
Liquidity1
Spread1
Tradability1
Time left1

Execution notes

No major liquidity or timing warnings.

OPEN_AND_TWO_SIDEDSPREAD_TIGHTDEPTH_STRONGPLENTY_OF_TIMEDATA_QUALITY_HIGH

Outcomes

Yes

Mid 2.2¢·Bid 0.02·Ask 0.02

No Lead

Mid 97.8¢·Bid 0.98·Ask 0.98

Price (MID)Entropy0·Datahigh

Real-time mid prices from Polymarket CLOB

Updating…
Yes
No

Signals on this market

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Top traders

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Context

Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Resolution source

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event

US military draft authorized in 2026?

Resolve
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Trades 24h
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Advanced data

Market metrics (raw)

{
  "p_normalized": [
    0.022,
    0.978
  ],
  "activity": {
    "trades_24h": null,
    "volume_7d_usd": 2365.811217,
    "volume_24h_usd": 111.987736,
    "open_interest_usd": 32778.75298
  },
  "leader_outcome_id": 1
}

Depth / impact

Yes

  • 100 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
  • 200 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
  • 500 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
  • —

No

  • 100 {"buy":20866.57399,"sell":1993.24224}
  • 200 {"buy":36561.16428,"sell":4069.60534}
  • 500 {"buy":79539.18427999999,"sell":4200.87398}
  • —

Order books

Outcome 1

Bids (top 5)

  • {"size":51.99,"price":0.976}
  • {"size":500,"price":0.975}
  • {"size":1500,"price":0.97}
  • {"size":10,"price":0.967}
  • {"size":82.05,"price":0.966}

Asks (top 5)

  • {"size":20,"price":0.98}
  • {"size":95.01,"price":0.981}
  • {"size":389,"price":0.982}
  • {"size":20664.5,"price":0.983}
  • {"size":59.52,"price":0.984}

Outcome 0

Bids (top 5)

  • {"size":20,"price":0.02}
  • {"size":95.01,"price":0.019}
  • {"size":389,"price":0.018}
  • {"size":20664.5,"price":0.017}
  • {"size":59.52,"price":0.016}

Asks (top 5)

  • {"size":51.99,"price":0.024}
  • {"size":500,"price":0.025}
  • {"size":1500,"price":0.03}
  • {"size":10,"price":0.033}
  • {"size":82.05,"price":0.034}