Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31?

Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31?

OPENBinary · Closes 1/1/2027, 12:59:00 PM

POLITICSTRUMPTRUMP SPEECH
Open on Polymarket ↗

Score

93

Good

24h vol

$16,681

7d vol

$90,523

Open int.

$73,616

Activity

3 traders · 3 signals · updated 36 min. ago

Score breakdown

50 min. ago
Liquidity1
Spread1
Tradability1
Time left1

Execution notes

No major liquidity or timing warnings.

OPEN_AND_TWO_SIDEDSPREAD_OKDEPTH_STRONGPLENTY_OF_TIMEDATA_QUALITY_HIGH

Outcomes

Yes

Mid 19.5¢·Bid 0.19·Ask 0.2

No Lead

Mid 80.5¢·Bid 0.8·Ask 0.81

Price (MID)Entropy0·Datahigh

Real-time mid prices from Polymarket CLOB

Updating…
Yes
No

Signals on this market

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Top traders

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Context

Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if President Donald Trump formally declares a national emergency, pursuant to the National Emergencies Act, explicitly relating to interference in U.S. elections or election processes, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying declaration must include formal language stating that a national emergency exists and must be issued under the National Emergencies Act (50 U.S.C. § 1621 et seq.). The declaration must explicitly reference interference in U.S. elections, election processes, election systems, voting procedures, ballots, or voting machines as the basis for the emergency. Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, executive orders that do not formally declare a national emergency under the National Emergencies Act, or other actions that merely reference election interference without declaring a national emergency will not qualify. Renewals or extensions of previously existing national emergencies will not qualify unless the text is materially modified to explicitly relate to election interference. The primary resolution source will be the Federal Register and official White House publications, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to “Yes” if President Donald Trump formally declares a national emergency, pursuant to the National Emergencies Act, explicitly relating to interference in U.S. elections or election processes, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying declaration must include formal language stating that a national emergency exists and must be issued under the National Emergencies Act (50 U.S.C. § 1621 et seq.). The declaration must explicitly reference interference in U.S. elections, election processes, election systems, voting procedures, ballots, or voting machines as the basis for the emergency. Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, executive orders that do not formally declare a national emergency under the National Emergencies Act, or other actions that merely reference election interference without declaring a national emergency will not qualify. Renewals or extensions of previously existing national emergencies will not qualify unless the text is materially modified to explicitly relate to election interference. The primary resolution source will be the Federal Register and official White House publications, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Resolution source

The primary resolution source will be the Federal Register and official White House publications, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event

Trump declares election interference national emergency by...?

Resolve
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Advanced data

Market metrics (raw)

{
  "p_normalized": [
    0.195,
    0.805
  ],
  "activity": {
    "trades_24h": null,
    "volume_7d_usd": 90522.787296,
    "volume_24h_usd": 16681.417128,
    "open_interest_usd": 73616.1724
  },
  "leader_outcome_id": 1
}

Depth / impact

Yes

  • 100 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
  • 200 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
  • 500 {"buy":1266.522,"sell":423.99070000000006}
  • —

No

  • 100 {"buy":1807.5393000000004,"sell":5066.088}
  • 200 {"buy":11569.130899999998,"sell":34865.2988}
  • 500 {"buy":31495.168999999998,"sell":48156.9588}
  • —

Order books

Outcome 0

Bids (top 5)

  • {"size":2231.53,"price":0.19}
  • {"size":11904.38,"price":0.18}
  • {"size":23688.51,"price":0.17}
  • {"size":314.97,"price":0.16}
  • {"size":576.2,"price":0.15}

Asks (top 5)

  • {"size":6332.61,"price":0.2}
  • {"size":37720.52,"price":0.21}
  • {"size":10310,"price":0.22}
  • {"size":6818,"price":0.23}
  • {"size":1075.47,"price":0.24}

Outcome 1

Bids (top 5)

  • {"size":6332.61,"price":0.8}
  • {"size":37720.52,"price":0.79}
  • {"size":10310,"price":0.78}
  • {"size":6818,"price":0.77}
  • {"size":1075.47,"price":0.76}

Asks (top 5)

  • {"size":2231.53,"price":0.81}
  • {"size":11904.38,"price":0.82}
  • {"size":23688.51,"price":0.83}
  • {"size":314.97,"price":0.84}
  • {"size":576.2,"price":0.85}