Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?

OPENBinary · Closes 7/1/2027, 11:59:00 AM

POLITICSRUSSIAUKRAINETRUMPZELENSKYYPUTINZELENSKYGEOPOLITICSUKRAINE PEACE DEAL
Open on Polymarket ↗

Score

93

Good

24h vol

$9,657

7d vol

$117,991

Open int.

$144,822

Activity

24 traders · 24 signals · updated 14 min. ago

Score breakdown

27 min. ago
Liquidity1
Spread1
Tradability1
Time left1

Execution notes

No major liquidity or timing warnings.

OPEN_AND_TWO_SIDEDSPREAD_OKDEPTH_STRONGPLENTY_OF_TIMEDATA_QUALITY_HIGH

Outcomes

Yes

Mid 14.5¢·Bid 0.14·Ask 0.15

No Lead

Mid 85.5¢·Bid 0.85·Ask 0.86

Price (MID)Entropy0·Datahigh

Real-time mid prices from Polymarket CLOB

Updating…
Yes
No

Signals on this market

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Top traders

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Context

Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement. Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify. If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement. Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify. If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.

Resolution source

The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.

Event

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

Resolve
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Trades 24h
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Advanced data

Market metrics (raw)

{
  "p_normalized": [
    0.14500000000000002,
    0.855
  ],
  "activity": {
    "trades_24h": null,
    "volume_7d_usd": 117990.977278,
    "volume_24h_usd": 9657.083901999998,
    "open_interest_usd": 144821.7095
  },
  "leader_outcome_id": 1
}

Depth / impact

Yes

  • 100 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
  • 200 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
  • 500 {"buy":354.3,"sell":148.8018}
  • —

No

  • 100 {"buy":914.0681999999999,"sell":2007.7}
  • 200 {"buy":3646.5468,"sell":39367.1116}
  • 500 {"buy":37005.1339,"sell":50995.95889999999}
  • —

Order books

Outcome 1

Bids (top 5)

  • {"size":2362,"price":0.85}
  • {"size":44475.49,"price":0.84}
  • {"size":10062.31,"price":0.83}
  • {"size":3996.5,"price":0.82}
  • {"size":10798.99,"price":0.81}

Asks (top 5)

  • {"size":1062.87,"price":0.86}
  • {"size":3140.78,"price":0.87}
  • {"size":25727.36,"price":0.88}
  • {"size":12043.27,"price":0.89}
  • {"size":20625.08,"price":0.9}

Outcome 0

Bids (top 5)

  • {"size":1062.87,"price":0.14}
  • {"size":3140.78,"price":0.13}
  • {"size":25727.36,"price":0.12}
  • {"size":12043.27,"price":0.11}
  • {"size":20625.08,"price":0.1}

Asks (top 5)

  • {"size":2362,"price":0.15}
  • {"size":44475.49,"price":0.16}
  • {"size":10062.31,"price":0.17}
  • {"size":3996.5,"price":0.18}
  • {"size":10798.99,"price":0.19}