Russia coup attempt in 2026?

Russia coup attempt in 2026?

OPENBinary · Closes 1/1/2028, 12:59:00 PM

POLITICSRUSSIAUKRAINEPUTINGEOPOLITICS
Open on Polymarket ↗

Score

96

Good

24h vol

$530

7d vol

$3,902

Open int.

$51,794

Activity

4 traders · 4 signals · updated 1 hr. ago

Score breakdown

46 min. ago
Liquidity1
Spread1
Tradability1
Time left1

Execution notes

No major liquidity or timing warnings.

OPEN_AND_TWO_SIDEDSPREAD_OKDEPTH_STRONGPLENTY_OF_TIMEDATA_QUALITY_HIGH

Outcomes

Yes

Mid 2.55¢·Bid 0.02·Ask 0.03

No Lead

Mid 97.45¢·Bid 0.97·Ask 0.98

Price (MID)Entropy0·Datahigh

Real-time mid prices from Polymarket CLOB

Updating…
Yes
No

Signals on this market

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Top traders

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Context

Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify. Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify. Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Resolution source

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Event

Russia coup attempt by...?

Resolve
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Trades 24h
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Advanced data

Market metrics (raw)

{
  "p_normalized": [
    0.025500000000000005,
    0.9745
  ],
  "activity": {
    "trades_24h": null,
    "volume_7d_usd": 3901.807903,
    "volume_24h_usd": 530,
    "open_interest_usd": 51793.58636
  },
  "leader_outcome_id": 1
}

Depth / impact

Yes

  • 100 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
  • 200 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
  • 500 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
  • —

No

  • 100 {"buy":1251.61152,"sell":1381.4480999999998}
  • 200 {"buy":73442.18727000001,"sell":2603.4781}
  • 500 {"buy":176173.8527,"sell":4425.340499999999}
  • —

Order books

Outcome 1

Bids (top 5)

  • {"size":428,"price":0.97}
  • {"size":440.9,"price":0.969}
  • {"size":218,"price":0.967}
  • {"size":150,"price":0.966}
  • {"size":190,"price":0.965}

Asks (top 5)

  • {"size":180.61,"price":0.979}
  • {"size":450,"price":0.98}
  • {"size":515.41,"price":0.981}
  • {"size":83,"price":0.982}
  • {"size":47.43,"price":0.984}

Outcome 0

Bids (top 5)

  • {"size":180.61,"price":0.021}
  • {"size":450,"price":0.02}
  • {"size":515.41,"price":0.019}
  • {"size":83,"price":0.018}
  • {"size":47.43,"price":0.016}

Asks (top 5)

  • {"size":428,"price":0.03}
  • {"size":440.9,"price":0.031}
  • {"size":218,"price":0.033}
  • {"size":150,"price":0.034}
  • {"size":190,"price":0.035}