Plague pandemic in 2026?

Plague pandemic in 2026?

OPENBinary · Closes 1/1/2027, 12:59:00 PM

SCIENCEPANDEMICSPLAGUE
Open on Polymarket ↗

Score

98

Good

24h vol

$5,737

7d vol

$8,706

Open int.

$65,770

Activity

4 traders · 4 signals · updated 17 min. ago

Score breakdown

21 min. ago
Liquidity1
Spread1
Tradability1
Time left1

Execution notes

No major liquidity or timing warnings.

OPEN_AND_TWO_SIDEDSPREAD_OKDEPTH_STRONGPLENTY_OF_TIMEDATA_QUALITY_HIGH

Outcomes

Yes

Mid 1.45¢·Bid 0.01·Ask 0.02

No Lead

Mid 98.55¢·Bid 0.98·Ask 0.99

Price (MID)Entropy0·Datahigh

Real-time mid prices from Polymarket CLOB

Updating…
Yes
No

Signals on this market

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Top traders

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Context

Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes plague, Yersinia pestis, pneumonic plague, or any plague outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the disease or outbreak as a "pandemic". A Public Health Emergency of International Concern alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic. The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes plague, Yersinia pestis, pneumonic plague, or any plague outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the disease or outbreak as a "pandemic". A Public Health Emergency of International Concern alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic. The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Resolution source

The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event

Plague pandemic in 2026?

Resolve
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Trades 24h
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Advanced data

Market metrics (raw)

{
  "p_normalized": [
    0.014499999999999999,
    0.9855
  ],
  "activity": {
    "trades_24h": null,
    "volume_7d_usd": 8705.691616,
    "volume_24h_usd": 5737.057193,
    "open_interest_usd": 65770.1437
  },
  "leader_outcome_id": 1
}

Depth / impact

Yes

  • 100 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
  • 200 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
  • 500 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
  • —

No

  • 100 {"buy":63111.486339999996,"sell":1642.8568699999998}
  • 200 {"buy":105290.22954,"sell":2711.75687}
  • 500 {"buy":105290.22954,"sell":17692.45737}
  • —

Order books

Outcome 0

Bids (top 5)

  • {"size":1090,"price":0.011}
  • {"size":32455.19,"price":0.01}
  • {"size":10733.64,"price":0.009}
  • {"size":5714.2,"price":0.007}
  • {"size":6666.6,"price":0.006}

Asks (top 5)

  • {"size":111,"price":0.018}
  • {"size":703.65,"price":0.019}
  • {"size":462.18,"price":0.021}
  • {"size":300,"price":0.022}
  • {"size":100,"price":0.023}

Outcome 1

Bids (top 5)

  • {"size":111,"price":0.982}
  • {"size":703.65,"price":0.981}
  • {"size":462.18,"price":0.979}
  • {"size":300,"price":0.978}
  • {"size":100,"price":0.977}

Asks (top 5)

  • {"size":1090,"price":0.989}
  • {"size":32455.19,"price":0.99}
  • {"size":10733.64,"price":0.991}
  • {"size":5714.2,"price":0.993}
  • {"size":6666.6,"price":0.994}