Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by October 31?

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by October 31?

OPENBinary · Closes 11/1/2026, 7:59:00 AM

POLITICSRESIGNHEGSETHDEPARTMENT OF WAR
Open on Polymarket ↗

Score

96

Good

24h vol

$9,497

7d vol

$16,836

Open int.

$35,110

Activity

—

Score breakdown

6 days ago
Liquidity1
Spread1
Tradability1
Time left1

Execution notes

No major liquidity or timing warnings.

OPEN_AND_TWO_SIDEDSPREAD_OKDEPTH_STRONGPLENTY_OF_TIMEDATA_QUALITY_HIGH

Outcomes

Yes

Mid 1¢·Bid 0.01·Ask 0.02

No Lead

Mid 99¢·Bid 0.99·Ask 1

Price (MID)Entropy0·Datahigh

Real-time mid prices from Polymarket CLOB

Updating…
Yes
No

Signals on this market

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Top traders

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Context

Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pete Hegseth ceases to be U.S. Secretary of Defense for any period of time between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Pete Hegseth's resignation/removal by this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pete Hegseth and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pete Hegseth ceases to be U.S. Secretary of Defense for any period of time between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Pete Hegseth's resignation/removal by this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pete Hegseth and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Resolution source

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pete Hegseth and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by October 31?

Resolve
—
Trades 24h
—
Advanced data

Market metrics (raw)

{
  "p_normalized": [
    0.01,
    0.99
  ],
  "activity": {
    "trades_24h": null,
    "volume_7d_usd": 16835.50205,
    "volume_24h_usd": 9496.532575000001,
    "open_interest_usd": 35109.8774
  },
  "leader_outcome_id": 1
}

Depth / impact

Yes

  • 100 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
  • 200 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
  • 500 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
  • —

No

  • 100 {"buy":71592.39554,"sell":5928.023909999999}
  • 200 {"buy":71592.39554,"sell":6350.187869999999}
  • 500 {"buy":71592.39554,"sell":20368.55857}
  • —

Order books

Outcome 1

Bids (top 5)

  • {"size":2972.84,"price":0.985}
  • {"size":793,"price":0.984}
  • {"size":2197.97,"price":0.983}
  • {"size":60,"price":0.981}
  • {"size":100,"price":0.98}

Asks (top 5)

  • {"size":860,"price":0.995}
  • {"size":7304,"price":0.996}
  • {"size":9799.67,"price":0.997}
  • {"size":14050,"price":0.998}
  • {"size":39709.45,"price":0.999}

Outcome 0

Bids (top 5)

  • {"size":860,"price":0.005}
  • {"size":7304,"price":0.004}
  • {"size":9799.67,"price":0.003}
  • {"size":14050,"price":0.002}
  • {"size":39709.45,"price":0.001}

Asks (top 5)

  • {"size":2972.84,"price":0.015}
  • {"size":793,"price":0.016}
  • {"size":2197.97,"price":0.017}
  • {"size":60,"price":0.019}
  • {"size":100,"price":0.02}