Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

OPENBinary · Closes 1/1/2027, 12:59:00 PM

POLITICSIRANTRUMPGEOPOLITICSPOST ELECTIONTRUMP CABINETPETE HEGSETHHEGSETHCABINET SHAKEUP
Open on Polymarket ↗

Score

93

Good

24h vol

$340,334

7d vol

$1,652,141

Open int.

$84,338

Activity

47 traders · 48 signals · updated 1 min. ago

Score breakdown

10 min. ago
Liquidity1
Spread1
Tradability1
Time left1

Execution notes

No major liquidity or timing warnings.

OPEN_AND_TWO_SIDEDSPREAD_OKDEPTH_STRONGPLENTY_OF_TIMEDATA_QUALITY_HIGH

Outcomes

Yes

Mid 12.5¢·Bid 0.12·Ask 0.13

No Lead

Mid 87.5¢·Bid 0.87·Ask 0.88

Price (MID)Entropy0·Datahigh

Real-time mid prices from Polymarket CLOB

Updating…
Yes
No

Signals on this market

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Top traders

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Context

Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pete Hegseth ceases to be U.S. Secretary of Defense for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Pete Hegseth's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pete Hegseth and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pete Hegseth ceases to be U.S. Secretary of Defense for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Pete Hegseth's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pete Hegseth and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Resolution source

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pete Hegseth and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

Resolve
—
Trades 24h
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Advanced data

Market metrics (raw)

{
  "p_normalized": [
    0.125,
    0.875
  ],
  "activity": {
    "trades_24h": null,
    "volume_7d_usd": 1652140.761918,
    "volume_24h_usd": 340334.4263920001,
    "open_interest_usd": 84338.2981
  },
  "leader_outcome_id": 1
}

Depth / impact

Yes

  • 100 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
  • 200 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
  • 500 {"buy":458.25,"sell":2001.6503999999998}
  • —

No

  • 100 {"buy":14678.769599999998,"sell":3066.75}
  • 200 {"buy":32952.0093,"sell":11226.989}
  • 500 {"buy":55954.9691,"sell":22582.7232}
  • —

Order books

Outcome 0

Bids (top 5)

  • {"size":16680.42,"price":0.12}
  • {"size":20531.73,"price":0.11}
  • {"size":15856.04,"price":0.1}
  • {"size":9596.18,"price":0.09}
  • {"size":6300.35,"price":0.08}

Asks (top 5)

  • {"size":3525,"price":0.13}
  • {"size":9488.65,"price":0.14}
  • {"size":9450.94,"price":0.15}
  • {"size":3955.28,"price":0.16}
  • {"size":2235.37,"price":0.17}

Outcome 1

Bids (top 5)

  • {"size":3525,"price":0.87}
  • {"size":9488.65,"price":0.86}
  • {"size":9450.94,"price":0.85}
  • {"size":3955.28,"price":0.84}
  • {"size":2235.37,"price":0.83}

Asks (top 5)

  • {"size":16680.42,"price":0.88}
  • {"size":20531.73,"price":0.89}
  • {"size":15856.04,"price":0.9}
  • {"size":9596.18,"price":0.91}
  • {"size":6300.35,"price":0.92}