OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?

OPENBinary · Closes 1/1/2027, 12:59:00 PM

AIOPENAILLMARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCETECHSAMALTMANCHATGPTBIG TECHAI BENCHMARKSAI ACHIEVEMENTS

Open on Polymarket ↗

Score

Good

24h vol

$13,958

7d vol

$23,985

Open int.

$18,543

Activity

4 traders · 4 signals · updated 3 min. ago

Score breakdown

8 min. ago

Liquidity1

Spread1

Tradability1

Time left1

Execution notes

No major liquidity or timing warnings.

OPEN_AND_TWO_SIDEDSPREAD_OKDEPTH_STRONGPLENTY_OF_TIMEDATA_QUALITY_HIGH

Outcomes

Yes

Mid 5.5¢·Bid 0.05·Ask 0.06

No Lead

Mid 94.5¢·Bid 0.94·Ask 0.95

Price (MID)Entropy0·DatahighCtrl or ⌘ + scroll to pan/zoom

Real-time mid prices from Polymarket CLOB

Updating…

Yes

Signals on this market

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Top traders

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Context

Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or an official representative of the company announces that it has created an artificial general intelligence (AGI) by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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Resolution criteria

Resolution source

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Event

OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?

Resolve: —
Trades 24h: —

Advanced data

Market metrics (raw)

{
  "p_normalized": [
    0.055,
    0.945
  ],
  "activity": {
    "trades_24h": null,
    "volume_7d_usd": 23985.380838999998,
    "volume_24h_usd": 13957.534724999996,
    "open_interest_usd": 18543.243
  },
  "leader_outcome_id": 1
}

Depth / impact

Yes

100 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
200 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
500 {"buy":0,"sell":0}

100 {"buy":32930.6385,"sell":906.8932}
200 {"buy":38747.8257,"sell":5101.323400000001}
500 {"buy":53628.7387,"sell":7588.122900000001}

Order books

Outcome 0

Bids (top 5)

{"size":34663.83,"price":0.05}
{"size":6059.57,"price":0.04}
{"size":2040.67,"price":0.03}
{"size":4618.26,"price":0.02}
{"size":8460.17,"price":0.01}

Asks (top 5)

{"size":964.78,"price":0.06}
{"size":4510.14,"price":0.07}
{"size":2604.12,"price":0.08}
{"size":100.01,"price":0.09}
{"size":73.48,"price":0.13}

Outcome 1

Bids (top 5)

{"size":964.78,"price":0.94}
{"size":4510.14,"price":0.93}
{"size":2604.12,"price":0.92}
{"size":100.01,"price":0.91}
{"size":73.48,"price":0.87}

Asks (top 5)

{"size":34663.83,"price":0.95}
{"size":6059.57,"price":0.96}
{"size":2040.67,"price":0.97}
{"size":4618.26,"price":0.98}
{"size":8460.17,"price":0.99}