NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?

NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?

OPENBinary · Closes 1/3/2027, 12:59:00 PM

RUSSIAUKRAINETRUMPNATOGEOPOLITICSTRUMP PRESIDENCYWORLD
Open on Polymarket ↗

Score

100

Good

24h vol

$29,270

7d vol

$1,967,347

Open int.

$63,386

Activity

—

Score breakdown

2 days ago
Liquidity1
Spread1
Tradability1
Time left1

Execution notes

No major liquidity or timing warnings.

OPEN_AND_TWO_SIDEDSPREAD_TIGHTDEPTH_STRONGPLENTY_OF_TIMEDATA_QUALITY_HIGH

Outcomes

Yes

Mid 0.9¢·Bid 0.01·Ask 0.01

No Lead

Mid 99.1¢·Bid 0.99·Ask 0.99

Price (MID)Entropy0·Datahigh

Real-time mid prices from Polymarket CLOB

Updating…
Yes
No

Signals on this market

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Top traders

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Context

Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of a NATO country and Russia between market creation and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between NATO and Russian military forces. Non-violent actions, such as airspace violations, firing of warning shots (such as the June, 2021 Black Sea Confrontations between Russian forces and HMS Defender), or cyberattacks will not qualify. Interception of missiles or other one-way attack or loitering munitions (e.g. Shahed drones) which are targeting a 3rd party other than the listed countries or their respective forces will not alone qualify. Shooting down UAVs which are not munitions (e.g. MQ-9, Orlan 10, Orion, Bayraktar TB2, etc.) will qualify. Intentional physical collisions, including aerial interceptions and naval ramming without the direct use of weaponry, such as the 2023 Black Sea incident—where a Russian Su-27 damaged a U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drone's propeller, leading to its crash— will not qualify regardless of damage. Military contractors will qualify only if confirmed to be operating under the direct command or coordination of the respective state’s armed forces (e.g. the Battle of Khasham would not qualify). The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of a NATO country and Russia between market creation and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between NATO and Russian military forces. Non-violent actions, such as airspace violations, firing of warning shots (such as the June, 2021 Black Sea Confrontations between Russian forces and HMS Defender), or cyberattacks will not qualify. Interception of missiles or other one-way attack or loitering munitions (e.g. Shahed drones) which are targeting a 3rd party other than the listed countries or their respective forces will not alone qualify. Shooting down UAVs which are not munitions (e.g. MQ-9, Orlan 10, Orion, Bayraktar TB2, etc.) will qualify. Intentional physical collisions, including aerial interceptions and naval ramming without the direct use of weaponry, such as the 2023 Black Sea incident—where a Russian Su-27 damaged a U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drone's propeller, leading to its crash— will not qualify regardless of damage. Military contractors will qualify only if confirmed to be operating under the direct command or coordination of the respective state’s armed forces (e.g. the Battle of Khasham would not qualify). The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Resolution source

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Event

NATO x Russia military clash by...?

Resolve
—
Trades 24h
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Advanced data

Market metrics (raw)

{
  "p_normalized": [
    0.009000000000000001,
    0.991
  ],
  "activity": {
    "trades_24h": null,
    "volume_7d_usd": 1967346.744497,
    "volume_24h_usd": 29269.881107,
    "open_interest_usd": 63385.91617
  },
  "leader_outcome_id": 1
}

Depth / impact

Yes

  • 100 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
  • 200 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
  • 500 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
  • —

No

  • 100 {"buy":169472.12410000002,"sell":3203.31063}
  • 200 {"buy":169472.12410000002,"sell":14404.622720000001}
  • 500 {"buy":169472.12410000002,"sell":22355.07699}
  • —

Order books

Outcome 1

Bids (top 5)

  • {"size":15.69,"price":0.99}
  • {"size":363.63,"price":0.986}
  • {"size":978.11,"price":0.985}
  • {"size":1900,"price":0.982}
  • {"size":9934.34,"price":0.979}

Asks (top 5)

  • {"size":237,"price":0.992}
  • {"size":25605.72,"price":0.993}
  • {"size":833.33,"price":0.994}
  • {"size":2000,"price":0.995}
  • {"size":4505,"price":0.996}

Outcome 0

Bids (top 5)

  • {"size":237,"price":0.008}
  • {"size":25605.72,"price":0.007}
  • {"size":833.33,"price":0.006}
  • {"size":2000,"price":0.005}
  • {"size":4505,"price":0.004}

Asks (top 5)

  • {"size":15.69,"price":0.01}
  • {"size":363.63,"price":0.014}
  • {"size":978.11,"price":0.015}
  • {"size":1900,"price":0.018}
  • {"size":9934.34,"price":0.021}