NATO article 5 before 2027?

NATO article 5 before 2027?

OPENBinary · Closes 1/1/2027, 12:59:00 PM

POLITICSNATOGEOPOLITICSFOREIGN POLICYWORLD
Open on Polymarket ↗

Score

96

Good

24h vol

$2,552

7d vol

$5,230

Open int.

$62,671

Activity

7 traders · 7 signals · updated 29 sec. ago

Score breakdown

10 min. ago
Liquidity1
Spread1
Tradability1
Time left1

Execution notes

No major liquidity or timing warnings.

OPEN_AND_TWO_SIDEDSPREAD_TIGHTDEPTH_STRONGPLENTY_OF_TIMEDATA_QUALITY_HIGH

Outcomes

Yes

Mid 2.8¢·Bid 0.03·Ask 0.03

No Lead

Mid 97.2¢·Bid 0.97·Ask 0.97

Price (MID)Entropy0·Datahigh

Real-time mid prices from Polymarket CLOB

Updating…
Yes
No

Signals on this market

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Top traders

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Context

Description

If any NATO member country invokes Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty at any time between November 5, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO (nato.int), however a consensus of credible media will also suffice.

Resolution criteria

If any NATO member country invokes Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty at any time between November 5, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO (nato.int), however a consensus of credible media will also suffice.

Resolution source

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO (nato.int), however a consensus of credible media will also suffice.

Event

NATO article 5 before 2027?

Resolve
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Trades 24h
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Advanced data

Market metrics (raw)

{
  "p_normalized": [
    0.028,
    0.972
  ],
  "activity": {
    "trades_24h": null,
    "volume_7d_usd": 5229.94436,
    "volume_24h_usd": 2552.02686,
    "open_interest_usd": 62670.82301
  },
  "leader_outcome_id": 1
}

Depth / impact

Yes

  • 100 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
  • 200 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
  • 500 {"buy":2.27795,"sell":5.9399999999999995}
  • —

No

  • 100 {"buy":497.394,"sell":22042.19027}
  • 200 {"buy":9024.78912,"sell":22557.51845}
  • 500 {"buy":158396.85703999997,"sell":23903.877170000003}
  • —

Order books

Outcome 1

Bids (top 5)

  • {"size":78.55,"price":0.971}
  • {"size":22532.25,"price":0.97}
  • {"size":113.73,"price":0.964}
  • {"size":113.95,"price":0.962}
  • {"size":10,"price":0.961}

Asks (top 5)

  • {"size":220,"price":0.973}
  • {"size":20,"price":0.978}
  • {"size":115,"price":0.98}
  • {"size":154,"price":0.981}
  • {"size":1750,"price":0.982}

Outcome 0

Bids (top 5)

  • {"size":220,"price":0.027}
  • {"size":20,"price":0.022}
  • {"size":115,"price":0.02}
  • {"size":154,"price":0.019}
  • {"size":1750,"price":0.018}

Asks (top 5)

  • {"size":78.55,"price":0.029}
  • {"size":22532.25,"price":0.03}
  • {"size":113.73,"price":0.036}
  • {"size":113.95,"price":0.038}
  • {"size":10,"price":0.039}