Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?

OPENBinary · Closes 1/1/2027, 12:59:00 PM

IRANSTRAIT OF HORMUZOILGEOPOLITICSKHAMENEIIRAN REGIMEIRAN CEASEFIREU.S. X IRANMOJTABA KHAMENEIKHARG ISLAND
Open on Polymarket ↗

Score

100

Good

24h vol

$61,200

7d vol

$304,660

Open int.

$137,472

Activity

—

Score breakdown

2 wk. ago
Liquidity1
Spread1
Tradability1
Time left1

Execution notes

No major liquidity or timing warnings.

OPEN_AND_TWO_SIDEDSPREAD_TIGHTDEPTH_STRONGPLENTY_OF_TIMEDATA_QUALITY_HIGH

Outcomes

Yes

Mid 0.75¢·Bid 0.01·Ask 0.01

No Lead

Mid 99.25¢·Bid 0.99·Ask 0.99

Price (MID)Entropy0·Datahigh

Real-time mid prices from Polymarket CLOB

Updating…
Yes
No

Signals on this market

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Top traders

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Context

Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kharg Island is no longer under Iranian control by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". “No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Kharg Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island. Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established. If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island. If control over Kharg Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kharg Island is no longer under Iranian control by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". “No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Kharg Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island. Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established. If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island. If control over Kharg Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.

Resolution source

The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.

Event

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

Resolve
—
Trades 24h
—
Advanced data

Market metrics (raw)

{
  "p_normalized": [
    0.007500000000000001,
    0.9925
  ],
  "activity": {
    "trades_24h": null,
    "volume_7d_usd": 304660.123092,
    "volume_24h_usd": 61199.83879699999,
    "open_interest_usd": 137471.8657
  },
  "leader_outcome_id": 1
}

Depth / impact

Yes

  • 100 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
  • 200 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
  • 500 {"buy":0,"sell":0}
  • —

No

  • 100 {"buy":358097.87404,"sell":67737.12340000001}
  • 200 {"buy":358097.87404,"sell":73165.14340000002}
  • 500 {"buy":358097.87404,"sell":75651.19340000002}
  • —

Order books

Outcome 1

Bids (top 5)

  • {"size":6029.21,"price":0.992}
  • {"size":9511.52,"price":0.991}
  • {"size":9883,"price":0.99}
  • {"size":11216.64,"price":0.989}
  • {"size":13220.58,"price":0.988}

Asks (top 5)

  • {"size":9549.64,"price":0.993}
  • {"size":21679.57,"price":0.994}
  • {"size":20665.1,"price":0.995}
  • {"size":79755.1,"price":0.996}
  • {"size":52004.7,"price":0.997}

Outcome 0

Bids (top 5)

  • {"size":9549.64,"price":0.007}
  • {"size":21679.57,"price":0.006}
  • {"size":20665.1,"price":0.005}
  • {"size":79755.1,"price":0.004}
  • {"size":52004.7,"price":0.003}

Asks (top 5)

  • {"size":6029.21,"price":0.008}
  • {"size":9511.52,"price":0.009}
  • {"size":9883,"price":0.01}
  • {"size":11216.64,"price":0.011}
  • {"size":13220.58,"price":0.012}